CATL's Overseas Battery Volumes Jump 46.7% as Storage Deals Multiply and Margin Pressure Bites

CATL's battery installations outside China climbed 46.7% year on year between January and September 2026, according to data published Thursday by SNE Research. The figures, which track battery deployment rather than company revenue, also show the world's largest cellmaker lifting its share of that market from 28.6% to 33.7%, with overseas volumes reaching 143.7 GWh.

Yet the stock did not follow the volume story. On Friday, CATL shares shed 3.7% amid a sector-wide slump that media reports link to mounting difficulty in passing battery tax costs on to customers — a squeeze that has prompted JPMorgan to trim its earnings forecasts for Chinese battery makers.

A Terawatt-Hour Target, and a Cost Problem

Management is nonetheless projecting a steep delivery increase for the full year. Chairman and CEO Robin Zeng said on October 31 that CATL expects shipments of more than 1,000 GWh in 2026, up from 661 GWh in 2025 — a milestone he framed as the company's arrival in the terawatt-hour era.

Shareholders gave the plan their backing on November 2, approving financial support measures and the 2026 employee participation scheme at an extraordinary general meeting.

Europe Becomes the Focus for Home Storage

On the storage side, CATL and Octopus Energy, together with CATL subsidiary Ampace, signed a letter of intent on Tuesday to develop smart home-storage solutions, with European markets as the initial priority. Under the arrangement, Octopus Energy's software and customer platform would be paired with battery technology from CATL and Ampace. The document sets out a framework for joint exploration rather than a finalized product launch.

A second European initiative followed on October 27, when CATL and INTILION agreed to deploy CATL energy-storage systems totaling 3 GWh over five years. Germany, Switzerland and Austria rank among the target markets, alongside other territories. The two partners also intend to advance sodium-ion and lithium-ion battery technology in Europe.

Melbourne Launch Adds 9 MWh System

CATL's storage push extends beyond the old continent. On October 28, the company unveiled its TENER+ battery storage system, rated at 9 MWh, in Melbourne, and announced letters of intent with Hitachi Energy, EPEC Group and UNSW Sydney covering project execution, grid connection and qualification.

The common thread across the announcements is intent rather than revenue: each agreement describes planned cooperation, leaving the near-term earnings question — who ultimately absorbs the battery tax — squarely in the hands of JPMorgan's revised models.