BYD's US Pivot Leaves Exports to Carry the Weight as Seagull Pre-Orders Open

BYD began pre-orders for its second-generation Seagull in China while EVP Stella Li said geopolitics keeps passenger cars out of the US for now.

BYD has handed investors two very different storylines in the space of a single trading session. On one side sits a fresh product cycle: pre-orders for the second-generation Seagull opened in China today, with six exterior colours revealed but no pricing yet. On the other, a strategic retreat that removes the world's second-largest passenger car market from the company's roadmap for the foreseeable future.

The stock responded to the brighter half of the news. Shares in Hong Kong climbed 3.9% to EUR 8.62, riding a broader recovery across the territory's automakers after several down days. Market watchers framed the bounce as a technical counter-move, with concerns over peak-season sales and China-EU trade friction already largely priced in.

Washington Is Off the Table

Executive Vice President Stella Li used the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore to spell out why the company is staying out of the United States. Geopolitics, she said, now represents the single biggest obstacle to BYD's global expansion. The lack of clarity, visibility and stability in the US environment means passenger cars will not be sold there for now.

That decision carries real weight. North America's premium margins are gone from the equation, leaving BYD unusually dependent on China and on regions that are themselves debating trade barriers. Management has ruled out mergers or partnerships with other Chinese automakers, which means the expensive overseas factory build-out has to be financed and de-risked entirely in-house.

September Output and the Export Bet

The operational backdrop is a study in contrasts. September production of alternative-drive vehicles reached 463,864 units, with 463,561 delivered to customers. Exports accounted for 180,700 of those deliveries.

The home market, however, is losing momentum. Cumulative deliveries over the first nine months of 2026 came to 3.13 million vehicles, a decline of 3.94% against the same period a year earlier. Whether the export figure can accelerate fast enough to reverse that trend is now the central question for the investment case — and for Chairman Wang Chuanfu's stated ambition of overtaking Toyota as the world's largest automaker within five years.

Hungary, Heavy Trucks and a Robot Patent

Europe is where the regionalisation strategy is being tested. BYD is preparing to start up its plant in Hungary, with the long-term aim of building every vehicle it sells on the continent locally. Heavy commercial vehicles are also slated for European production, a move that would shield the company from EU countervailing duties on China-built electric cars.

The group's non-passenger businesses add ballast: large-scale energy storage batteries, solar modules, and a long-standing US presence in electric buses. In semiconductors, BYD continues to lean on its partnership with Nvidia. Li's view is that the Hong Kong-listed stock is deeply undervalued relative to US competitors — a gap that could narrow if the local factory build-out stays on schedule.

There is also a new dimension taking shape. China's intellectual property authority today published a BYD design patent for an intelligent humanoid robot that the company has not yet officially unveiled. Reaching series production, or extracting synergies with its highly automated manufacturing lines, would open a valuation angle beyond vehicle assembly.

What Could Go Wrong

The downside case starts with trade policy. If protectionism spreads beyond the US to other sales regions, BYD's global volume model comes under serious strain. Renewed uncertainty in the EU relationship would put European expansion plans back in front of hurdles, and fresh tariffs or regulatory requirements could compress margins.

At home, the picture is no easier. Li described recruiting enough staff for the Chinese plants as increasingly difficult. Industrial robots are the hoped-for answer on the assembly line, but that transition takes time and ties up capital.

The absence of confirmed pricing for the new Seagull adds another risk: without reliable price points, competition in China may have to be fought through discounts, which would weigh on profitability.

Chart Levels to Watch

Since the start of the year the shares have lost 19%, and they remain a long way from the 52-week high of EUR 12.30. The 52-week low of EUR 8.03 now serves as the line in the sand — holding it keeps the recovery alive, while a break below would suggest the geopolitical drag and the US withdrawal matter more than the product pipeline.

Near-term catalysts are lined up. Official pricing for the second-generation Seagull and the customer response to the pre-order launch will show whether the model changeover triggers the hoped-for sales wave. Investors will also be watching for the first official presentation of the patented robotics concept, alongside the monthly delivery reports that must demonstrate whether overseas demand can offset the self-imposed US blockade.