BYD's UK Deliveries Jump 80% as JPMorgan Cuts Rating and Paris Debut Looms

BYD's September UK registrations rose 80% to 20,140, but JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral, cutting its target to 88 HK$.

BYD is leaning harder on foreign showrooms to offset a stubborn slump at home, and September's numbers show the strategy is gaining traction in Europe even as analysts turn more cautious on the stock.

In the UK, the Chinese automaker's new registrations climbed to 20,140 vehicles last month, an 80% jump from a year earlier, with the SEAL U DM-i taking the title of the brand's best-selling model in that market. Germany added 6,052 new registrations, more than 3,900 of which went to private buyers — a retail share of 65%. Those gains underline how quickly exports are reshaping BYD's revenue mix and chipping away at its reliance on the Chinese domestic market.

Overseas Engine Roars Ahead

The broader export picture is even more striking. Passenger car and pickup sales abroad reached 1,337,831 units across the first nine months of the year, according to media reports, with September alone contributing 179,877 units — a 153.9% year-on-year surge. Total September deliveries of new-energy vehicles came to 463,561 units, of which 456,713 were passenger cars, and exports of alternative-drive vehicles accounted for 180,700 of the monthly total.

That 17% overall delivery growth, however, marks a slowdown from the 17.8% pace recorded in August. Reuters reported that robust exports were papering over persistently weak domestic demand in China, where cutthroat competition continues to squeeze the manufacturer. Cumulative sales for January through September stood at 3,131,576 units, a 3.94% decline year-on-year — figures the company flagged as unaudited and subject to revision.

Geopolitics Emerges as the Biggest Hurdle

Executive Vice President Stella Li has described geopolitics as the single largest challenge facing BYD's expansion. The company has responded by steering clear of passenger car sales in the United States altogether and declining to pursue partnerships with other Chinese industry players. Tariff and non-tariff trade barriers are increasingly shaping the calculus for Chinese manufacturers pushing into Western markets.

JPMorgan's analysts gave voice to that wariness roughly a week ago, downgrading the stock from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and slashing the price target to 88 HK$ from 124 HK$. The US bank pointed to anticipated weakness in China's auto sector, rising input costs and trade obstacles to global expansion as the drivers behind the move.

Market Reflects the Caution

The stock has felt the weight of that skepticism. At a current price of EUR 8.36, the shares are down 22% since the start of the year, with the Frankfurt quote slipping 0.8% on the day. BYD also confirmed governance changes at the end of September, when shareholders approved several supervisory board appointments: Cai Hong-ping and Li Yong-zhao were named non-executive directors, while Li Gang and Xu Tu joined as independent directors.

Paris Stage Set for a Fresh Model

Looking to reignite demand, BYD is pressing ahead with a product offensive. The company has unveiled its program for the Paris Motor Show, running from October 12 to 18, 2026, where it plans a press conference and the debut of a new vehicle model on October 12. Media reports also indicate the flagship Da Han sedan is scheduled for a market launch in China on October 13.

Whether the push into Western markets can permanently offset the home-market soft patch now rests largely on how the coming export months unfold.