BYD's September 29 Vote Is the Real Test — Not the Export Headlines

BYD shares sit at RSI 27 ahead of a Sept 29 extraordinary meeting, with record overseas sales offsetting a 20.54% first-half profit drop.

BYD's overseas sales machine keeps setting records, yet the stock has been grinding lower for weeks. That disconnect is about to meet its first hard catalyst: an extraordinary shareholder meeting on September 29 where investors will vote on charter amendments, board seats, and the creation of an asset-pool business backed by external guarantees.

The timing matters because the operational story is pulling in two directions at once. Overseas volume is exploding, but domestic profitability is eroding fast — and the market has to decide which force wins.

A stock priced for bad news

The technical picture is bleak. With an RSI of 27, BYD shares screen as oversold, having shed roughly 30% since an early-October interim high. The stock last closed at EUR 8.97 following a 2.6% drop the previous session, sitting about 11% below its 50-day moving average and 16% under its 200-day line — a configuration that signals the medium-term trend still points down. The 52-week low of EUR 8.03 is not far off.

Neither a reaffirmed export forecast nor a record August sales tally has been enough to halt the selling. So attention has shifted to the governance calendar. The H-share register closes from September 24 through September 29, with a registration deadline of September 23 at 16:30.

The numbers behind the tension

BYD's first-half results laid bare the squeeze. Revenue fell 7.13% to RMB 344.82 billion, while net profit dropped 20.54% to RMB 12.33 billion. Management attributes the decline primarily to short-term currency pressure, insisting core profitability held firm — and pointing to a 30% sequential gain in second-quarter net profit alongside an 18.9% gross margin, the strongest in a year.

Whether that recovery is durable or merely a snapshot will shape how the market reads the next set of quarterly figures. The domestic price war has been relentless, and it shows: first-half new-energy vehicle sales fell 15.72% to about 1.8085 million units. Chairman Wang Chuanfu blamed capacity constraints on the second-generation Blade battery, which is still ramping.

That bottleneck is no small matter. A backlog of roughly 250,000 orders for Flash-Charge models reportedly hinges on Blade 2 battery supply until early 2027. Anyone betting on a quick capacity release may be waiting a while.

Where the growth is coming from

The overseas engine is the counterweight. First-half international revenue climbed 33.92% to RMB 181.27 billion, lifting its share of total sales from about 40% a year earlier to 52.57%. From January through August, overseas deliveries totaled 1,162,260 vehicles — up 85.72% year on year — with 189,466 units moved in August alone.

Management has raised its 2026 overseas target to 1.9–2.0 million vehicles, according to Deutsche Bank and Citi following a company meeting, well above the 1.3 million projected in January and nearly double last year's figure. For 2027, BYD aims for more than 2.5 million foreign sales.

The premium push is helping too. Combined sales of the higher-priced Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, and Yangwang brands jumped 61%. The Sealion 08 has joined the Ocean lineup as a new flagship, and Denza is set to add a fully electric version of its large N8L SUV in September. Analyst sentiment has followed: CLSA initiated coverage with a buy rating on September 3, and Citic Securities reaffirmed its buy call on September 4.

What could still go wrong

Capacity is the weak link. The Hungary plant isn't expected to begin assembly until November or December, Indonesia has started up, and Brazil is working toward an annual capacity of 300,000 units. If that build-out slips, the export ramp won't arrive fast enough to offset domestic margin erosion.

Costs add another layer of pressure. First-half research and development spending reached about RMB 28.9 billion — roughly 2.3 times the period's net profit. That underscores BYD's innovation ambitions but weighs on near-term earnings.

Then there's the asset-pool structure itself. Details remain scarce, and governance changes of this kind can shift capital allocation and shareholder rights in ways the market can't fully anticipate. If the September 29 meeting stirs uncertainty about the new framework or the composition of the leadership body, it could breed additional mistrust.

The line investors are watching

As long as export momentum holds and the 18.9% gross margin from the second quarter proves sustainable, the growth case survives and the domestic weakness reads as a transitional phase. The oversold RSI would then look more like a setup for a technical bounce than a fundamental warning.

But if the Blade 2 bottleneck drags on domestic deliveries, or if the home-market price war intensifies further, pressure on overall profitability will build regardless of overseas wins. The September 29 vote — covering charter changes, director appointments, and the new guarantee structure — is the next concrete checkpoint. Until then, the shares are likely to trade caught between an oversold chart and unresolved questions about earnings quality.