BYD's Record September Shipments Fail to Halt Stock Slide as JPMorgan Steps Back

BYD posted a 2025-best 463,561 September deliveries, yet 17% growth and a 22% year-to-date share drop highlight weak Chinese EV demand.

BYD closed out September with its strongest monthly delivery tally of the year, yet the achievement did little to lift sentiment around the Chinese automaker's stock. Shares ended Friday's session at EUR 8.39, down 2.4 percent, as a broad retreat swept across Chinese electric-vehicle makers and investors fixated on cooling demand in the company's home market.

The pullback extends a bruising stretch for the equity, which has now shed 22 percent since the start of the year.

Growth Engine Loses a Gear

September's delivery figures, released Thursday, showed BYD moving 463,561 new-energy vehicles — a 2025 high-water mark. But the year-on-year growth rate told a less flattering story. According to Dow Jones, the pace of expansion eased to 17 percent, down from 18 percent in August and 22 percent in July.

That deceleration landed with particular force because September is traditionally the sector's peak selling season in China. Instead of a seasonal surge, manufacturers are grappling with a punishing price war and consumers who remain hesitant to open their wallets, even as new model variants and persistent discounting campaigns roll out. The absence of extra momentum during the strongest month of the year has visibly eroded investor confidence in the broader Chinese auto sector.

Over the full third quarter, BYD's total deliveries of vehicles with alternative powertrains reached 1,323,065 units, an 18.8 percent increase from the year-earlier period. The figure — reported as 18.75 percent growth in some accounts — snapped a streak of four consecutive quarters in which volumes had declined year-on-year. For the first nine months of 2025, however, cumulative volume slipped 3.94 percent.

Overseas Push Provides the Counterweight

With domestic demand proving stubbornly soft, BYD is leaning harder on markets beyond China's borders. Reuters reported that exports of passenger cars and pickups jumped 153.9 percent year-on-year in September to 179,877 units. Across the first three quarters, overseas shipments climbed 92.7 percent to just under 1.343 million vehicles.

That international momentum has become the company's most reliable buffer against weakness at home. Even so, building out foreign sales carries a hefty price tag — logistics, transport capacity and the construction of local distribution networks all demand significant upfront investment. Industry watchers are now focused on whether rising overseas volumes can sustainably offset both the domestic drag and the relentless margin pressure at home.

A Wider Lead Over Tesla

The export surge forms part of a broader shift in the global battery-electric vehicle race. During the third quarter, BYD delivered 762,478 fully electric passenger cars worldwide, outpacing Tesla's 486,532 deliveries by roughly 276,000 units. Tesla's quarter was bolstered mainly by a recovery in European demand, while BYD pressed ahead aggressively with its pure-EV ramp-up. The rivalry between the two heavyweights is only intensifying.

Not everything went smoothly. Nomura analysts noted that both Chinese domestic demand and order backlogs fell short of expectations, with fierce competition from local rivals such as Leapmotor and Geely squeezing established players in their home market.

Analysts Turn More Cautious

Against that backdrop, sell-side sentiment has cooled. JPMorgan downgraded the stock on Wednesday from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and trimmed its price target to HKD 88 from HKD 124, citing persistent weakness in China's auto sector and structural challenges expected to weigh on the company through 2027.

The cautious mood on the trading floor reflects a broader concern: while BYD continues to cement its lead over Tesla in pure-electric deliveries, investors are increasingly scrutinizing the profitability of its global expansion. Preserving margins under tougher market conditions has become the central test for the automaker.