BYD's Overseas Surge Meets a Stubborn Home Market as Da Han Launch Nears

BYD shares fall 21% in 2025 as China sales drop and JPMorgan downgrades the stock, while overseas exports jump 153.9% in September.

BYD is caught between two opposing forces. Outside China, the electric-vehicle maker is posting the kind of growth numbers that would normally electrify a stock. Inside China, demand is stalling, price competition is brutal, and analysts are trimming their expectations. The tension between those two realities now defines the investment case.

The market's verdict so far this year has been unforgiving. BYD shares are down 21% since the start of 2025, and the stock shed another 1.2% in recent trading to change hands at EUR 8.41. Broader Asian equities also came under pressure from rising bond yields and firmer oil prices, adding to the sour mood.

A Nine-Month Scorecard That Disappoints

The company's own disclosure to the Hong Kong exchange laid bare the challenge at home. New-energy vehicle sales for the first nine months of the year totaled 3,131,576 units, a decline of 3.94% from the same period a year earlier. BYD noted the figures are unaudited and subject to revision.

September offered a sharper snapshot of the split personality. Chinese sales fell almost 13% to 282,900 vehicles, according to data from SMM and CPCA. Yet total global volume still climbed to 463,600 units, lifted entirely by the overseas engine.

That engine is running hot. Exports of passenger cars and pickups jumped 153.9% in September to 179,877 vehicles, according to Reuters, while overall monthly deliveries rose 17% year on year. The international business has evolved from a side bet into a load-bearing pillar of BYD's volume story.

Australia, Brazil and India Pick Up the Slack

Nowhere is the shift more visible than in Australia. BYD delivered 76,614 new vehicles there through the end of September, more than double the 37,923 units sold in the same stretch last year — a gain of 102%. The continent's buyers are abandoning combustion engines at pace, and BYD has planted itself among the leading foreign brands riding that wave.

The pattern repeats across emerging markets. In Brazil, where BYD has operated its own manufacturing since last year, the King sedan topped the mid-size segment in September with 1,666 registrations. In India, volumes rose 35.9% to 836 units during the same month, per industry body FADA. Local production is doing double duty: it blunts the impact of trade restrictions and keeps supply chains steady, while letting BYD take share from legacy automakers that have been slow to electrify.

JPMorgan Steps Back

Professional investors, though, are not convinced the overseas momentum is enough. On September 29, JPMorgan downgraded the stock from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and cut its price target to HKD 88 from HKD 124. The US bank cited an expected soft patch in China's auto sector in the second half of 2026, along with structural headwinds stretching into 2027 — rising procurement costs, political uncertainty and international trade barriers among them.

The cautious stance reflects a broader recalibration. As growth at home loses steam, investors are shifting their focus from raw delivery figures to the margin risks of a drawn-out battle for market share. BYD's answer is a product offensive aimed at higher price points, designed to court new buyer groups and defend profitability in China.

Da Han Takes the Stage

That strategy got a concrete form this week. BYD unveiled its flagship sedan, the Da Han, at the Xi'an auto show. Pre-sales for the pure-electric version opened at prices between 249,900 and 299,900 yuan, with the official market launch set for October 13.

Whether the new models gain traction domestically — and whether overseas revenue can durably offset the drag at home — will determine where the shares go from here. Until that balance shifts, macroeconomic headwinds and trade-policy hurdles look set to keep weighing on the company's valuation.