BYD's Overseas Push Takes the Wheel as JPMorgan Hits the Brakes

BYD shares dropped 2.4% to EUR 8.39 as JPMorgan cut its rating to Neutral and lowered its target to HKD 88, despite a 17% rise in September deliveries.

Chinese electric-vehicle makers ran into a wall of selling on Friday, and BYD was no exception. The Shenzhen-based manufacturer's shares shed 2.4 percent to close at EUR 8.39, dragged down by a souring mood across Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index retreated 2.6 percent. Rising US Treasury yields and firmer oil prices sapped investors' appetite for risk, and cyclical consumer names such as automakers bore the brunt.

The broader sector faced its own headwinds. September is traditionally a peak season for Chinese car sales, yet the industry's growth momentum cooled noticeably during the month, according to media reports pointing to hesitant demand in the domestic market.

JPMorgan Trims Its Bets

Adding to the pressure, JPMorgan downgraded BYD to "Neutral" from "Overweight" on Tuesday and slashed its price target to HKD 88 from HKD 124. The brokerage cited an expected soft patch in China's auto industry, flagging subdued domestic demand alongside climbing procurement costs, political uncertainty and looming international trade barriers as the chief obstacles ahead.

The cautious call landed just as BYD reported its September production and delivery figures. The company shipped 463,561 vehicles last month, a 17 percent jump from a year earlier. What stood out was the performance abroad: exports of passenger cars and pickups more than doubled to 179,877 units, according to Reuters, providing a crucial buffer against lackluster demand at home.

Breaking down the September tally, battery-only passenger cars accounted for 273,143 deliveries, while plug-in hybrids made up 183,570 units.

Nine-Month Tally Still in the Red

The monthly gain, however, was not enough to lift BYD's cumulative performance. For the first nine months of the year, total deliveries reached 3,131,576 vehicles — down 3.94 percent from the same period in 2024.

That gap underscores how heavily the company now leans on its international expansion to offset softer consumer sentiment in China. With domestic buyers holding back, overseas markets have shifted from a growth opportunity to a strategic necessity, and the export engine's ability to keep firing will likely determine whether BYD can steady its footing in the months ahead.