BYD’s Overseas Push Gains Pace as China Market Softens

BYD exports jumped 154% in September, while China sales fell 13%. JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral, citing domestic weakness and policy risks.

BYD is entering the final stretch of 2026 with a mixed picture: overseas demand is accelerating, while its home market is under pressure. In September, the Chinese carmaker’s global vehicle sales rose 17 percent from a year earlier, Reuters reported, marking the fifth straight month of growth. The company also said it sold 463,561 new-energy vehicles last month, while the more detailed, unaudited production figure came in at 463,864 units, slightly below the level of a year earlier.

The export momentum is doing most of the heavy lifting. Shipments of cars and pick-ups jumped about 154 percent year on year in September to 179,877 vehicles, accounting for nearly 39 percent of total monthly volume. By contrast, deliveries in China fell about 13 percent to 282,861 vehicles. Across the first nine months of 2026, BYD delivered 3,131,576 vehicles, a figure that was down by almost 4 percent from the prior year even though more than 1.33 million units came from overseas markets, lifting the export share to more than 42 percent.

That shift is reflected in the company’s broader strategy. BYD is pushing ahead with international expansion plans, including a first heavy truck for Europe in 2027, according to Stella Li, the group’s executive vice president. A consultant for Europe has also said a decision on a second European manufacturing site could come by year-end. Longer term, the group is aiming for three vehicle assembly plants on the continent and its own battery factory. In parallel, it is building out local sales channels in regions such as South Asia.

At home, the company keeps adding capacity and infrastructure. On September 24, BYD opened its 2,000th fast-charging station along Chinese highways, bringing its network to almost one-third of all service areas on the country’s expressways. The manufacturer also hit a production milestone on Tuesday when the ten-millionth vehicle from its Dynasty line, a Da Han sedan, rolled off the line.

The pace of expansion has not prevented concerns from building. On Tuesday, JPMorgan downgraded BYD from Overweight to Neutral and cut its target price from HK$124 to HK$88, citing continuing weakness in China’s auto sector in the second half of 2026, softer domestic demand, higher procurement costs, policy uncertainty and tariff and non-tariff barriers abroad. Media reports also said Geely is adding price pressure with faster-charging systems.

Operational issues have added to the noise. On September 18, BYD announced a recall of 183,211 Qin and Tang vehicles built between 2014 and 2022 because of a possible defect in the brake pedal stopper, which the company is replacing free of charge.

The latest trading data reflect that tug of war between overseas growth and domestic caution. BYD shares were at EUR 8.72, up 2.3 percent on the day, even though the stock remains down 20 percent since the start of the year. Earlier reporting had placed the shares at EUR 8.59, up 0.8 percent intraday.