BYD's Malaysian Assembly Blueprint Meets a Profit Test Back Home

BYD is pushing ahead on two fronts that rarely share a headline: building out its Southeast Asian footprint while its earnings power comes under fresh scrutiny in China. A day after naming Inokom in Kulim as its local assembly partner in Malaysia, the automaker opened a new sales outlet in Rawang — a pairing of manufacturing ambition and retail expansion that gives investors plenty to weigh, even as Goldman Sachs trimmed its profit forecasts for the Chinese EV maker.

The Goldman revision landed Thursday, cutting earnings estimates for 2026 through 2030 by 2% to 6%. Crucially, the bank left both its buy rating and its 134 HK$ price target on the H-shares untouched. That is neither a downgrade nor a target cut — the brokerage still views the stock favorably, but now builds its valuation on lower profit expectations. Investors should read the buy call with that caveat in mind: the house has grown more cautious about future earnings, even if its overall stance hasn't shifted.

A Rival's Miss Sends Ripples

The immediate trigger for the stock's pressure was CATL. The battery giant reported third-quarter net profit of 21.25 billion RMB, well short of the 26.03 billion RMB analysts had penciled in. BYD shares came under selling pressure on the news, a reminder that investors aren't treating the miss as purely company-specific.

Yet the distinction matters. Those figures belong to CATL and do not demonstrate a matching profit decline at BYD. What they do is sharpen attention on how sales trends and competition will show up in BYD's own results. Sector sentiment souring is not the same as a fresh operating disclosure from the company itself.

Leadership and Declining Sales, Side by Side

BYD's volume picture is mixed. According to China Passenger Car Association data, the automaker led China's retail market for new-energy vehicles in September with a 22.8% share — even as domestic retail sales fell 28.9% year on year. Market leadership and shrinking sales coexist, and dominance alone doesn't answer how durable profit growth really is. That is precisely where the lowered analyst estimates and the CATL-driven reaction converge.

The next hard data point arrives on October 29, when BYD reports quarterly results. Goldman's note projects third-quarter revenue of 242.936 billion RMB and net profit of 11.5 billion RMB — forecasts, not reported figures. Until then, the key line to hold is the one between expectations and actual business performance. CATL's numbers are grounds for caution, not a substitute for BYD's own income statement.

Malaysia: A Partner Named, a Start Date Missing

In Malaysia, BYD Malaysia named Inokom in Kulim as its assembly partner on Thursday, covering local assembly from delivered vehicle kits. That extends BYD's activities beyond sales, but it doesn't amount to production already underway. A named partner makes the plans more concrete without answering the economic question: with no model specified and no confirmed start date, the partnership remains a step toward building local manufacturing rather than a finished contribution.

Distribution is further along. The Rawang outlet in Selangor, opened yesterday, is run by BE Autohaus and marks another BYD site for the BE Group after Setia Alam and Kota Kemuning. BYD Sime Motors operates 45 sales and marketing locations nationwide, 33 service facilities and 16 body-and-paint centers — a network covering both vehicle sales and after-delivery care. The Rawang launch promotion runs from October 19 to 30, 2026, with test drives and offers on selected models.

Philippines: Tariff Relief and a Currency Risk

On the Philippines, BYD is backing an extension of duty-free EV imports through 2040; under the current rule, the exemption ends in 2028. The import framework remains a key factor in the regional push — and not only for volumes. AB Capital Securities flags a weak peso as a potential risk to import costs and margins. Growing sales and a wider dealer network won't automatically erase such pressures. Ayala/BYD sales reached 28,399 vehicles through August 2026, already surpassing the full-year 2025 total.

The Southeast Asian progress is tangible but uneven. In the Philippines, strong volume sits alongside an unresolved tariff question. In Malaysia, the retail network is expanding while local assembly awaits specifics on model and production start. What counts isn't the number of new locations alone, but whether they convert into lasting business — the same test BYD faces when it opens its books on October 29.