BYD's Export Machine Is Humming, but the Home Front Is Bleeding

BYD took 35.4% of China's NEV exports in August, yet shares sit near 52-week lows as domestic sales fall and a Sept 29 EGM looms.

BYD has built an export operation that most global automakers can only envy. In August alone, the Chinese group accounted for 35.4% of all NEV shipments leaving China, according to China Passenger Car Association data — 183,746 vehicles, up 130.8% year-on-year. Across the first eight months, overseas sales reached 1,126,797 units, or 33.9% of China's total NEV exports.

To keep that pipeline flowing, the company has reportedly ordered ten more car carriers, each capable of hauling 9,200 vehicles, from China Merchants Industry with delivery slated between 2027 and 2029. That would lift its fleet to 18 vessels and more than 130,000 CEU of capacity.

And yet the stock tells a different story. At EUR 8.80, the shares sit roughly 30% below their 52-week high of EUR 12.49, touched last October, with an RSI of 29.4 pointing to oversold territory. Thursday's close came in at EUR 8.75, and the paper now trades about 11% under its 50-day moving average of EUR 9.80.

The Home Market Is the Problem

The central question for investors is whether overseas demand can paper over a deepening slump at home. China's domestic passenger vehicle sales tumbled 25.6% year-on-year in August, and BYD's own brand nameplate fell 35% in the same month on the mainland — even as the group as a whole, exports included, still managed a 17.8% gain to 440,293 units. Over the first eight months, BYD's domestic volume dropped 33%, per CPCA figures.

Vice chairman He Zhiqi has not minced words about the environment, describing competition in China as "not intense, but brutal." The numbers back him up: roughly 650 new or refreshed models hit the market in the first half alone, and manufacturers are scraping by on margins of just 1.5%. Industry-wide, Chinese auto margins stand at a lean 3.4%, well below the 6.1% cross-sector average, and He has noted that the price war is throwing up four new models a day.

What the Export Bet Is Worth

If the overseas trajectory holds, it more than offsets the domestic drag. BYD has already raised its 2026 export target to 1.9–2.0 million vehicles and is aiming for more than 2.5 million foreign sales by 2027. The additional vessel order signals management expects that demand to persist and is building logistics capacity ahead of it.

The structural shift is already visible in markets like Uruguay, where Chinese brands captured a 62.7% share in August and BYD led the field by a comfortable margin. Against Tesla, the group's edge also remains: BYD out-delivered its US rival by roughly 77,000 BEVs in the second quarter, and Wall Street estimates see that gap widening past one million vehicles by 2030.

Headwinds Abroad and a Governance Overhaul at Home

The bull case is not without friction. Washington applies an effective tariff rate of 40.9% on Chinese lithium-ion battery packs, and Canada caps access for Chinese EVs through an import quota. In Malaysia, BYD scrapped plans for its own assembly plant in Tanjung Malim and will lean on contract manufacturing instead — a retreat that underscores how difficult local production can be to pull off in some markets. Should the export engine sputter on new trade barriers or saturation in key emerging markets, there is little cushion against the weak home front.

Meanwhile, the company has called an extraordinary general meeting for 29 September. The agenda covers charter amendments, the election and re-election of directors, and the creation of an asset-pool business with associated external guarantees. The H-share register closes from 24 to 29 September, with transfers needing to be settled by 16:30 on 23 September.

The timing is telling. At the end of August, BYD reported first-half revenue down 7.13% to RMB 344.82 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders down 20.54% to RMB 12.33 billion. Management pinned the earnings decline largely on foreign-exchange losses, insisting core operating profitability held steady, and the board opted against an interim dividend.

Overseas operations have now grown heavy enough to warrant a rethink of the group's financing architecture. First-half international revenue climbed 33.92% to RMB 181.27 billion, crossing the halfway mark of consolidated sales for the first time. An asset pool backed by external guarantees could help fund that expansion without weighing too heavily on the parent's balance sheet — though the finer points will only emerge when the meeting is formally convened.

The director elections will draw scrutiny too. Boardroom reshuffles often coincide with strategic pivots, and BYD is navigating precisely such a moment, caught between aggressive overseas growth and a ferocious price war at home. Charter changes may also address procedural matters, aligning governance structures with a footprint that has gone global in a hurry.

For H-share holders, the register closure carries a concrete deadline: anyone intending to vote or assert claims must complete transfers by 23 September. Until then, the share price — hovering near its 52-week low of EUR 8.03 — remains the market's running verdict on how it weighs export strength against domestic risk. The 29 September gathering should offer the first real answers on how BYD intends to fit its capital structure to a business model that now earns more than half its keep abroad.