BYD's Export Engine Roars With 154% Gain, Yet a Sluggish Home Market Keeps the Stock in Reverse

BYD closed at EUR 8.39 as China EV makers slumped Friday. JPMorgan cut the stock to Neutral, citing weak demand and cost pressure.

Chinese electric-vehicle makers took a hit on the bourses Friday, and BYD was no exception. The stock shed 2.4 percent to close at EUR 8.39, caught in a broader wave of disappointment over the industry's September performance during what is traditionally its strongest selling season.

The downbeat mood in Hong Kong was compounded by rising US Treasury yields and firmer oil prices, while traders also pointed to Citigroup estimates suggesting wholesale volumes of alternative-drive vehicles in China had fallen short of expectations. Market participants returning from the holiday break voiced frustration over the limited reach of Beijing's stimulus measures. For EV manufacturers, the backdrop is growing more difficult by the day, with lackluster demand in the world's largest auto market acting as a drag on the entire sector.

A Tale of Two Markets

BYD's latest delivery figures lay bare the widening gap between its domestic and overseas operations. Worldwide sales of vehicles with alternative drivetrains reached 463,561 units in September, according to company data cited by Reuters. Exports of passenger cars and pickups jumped 153.9 percent to 179,877 units — a surge that stands in sharp contrast to the persistent softness at home.

The cumulative picture underscores how much the home market has cooled. Across January through September, total deliveries slipped 3.9 percent year-on-year to 3,131,576 vehicles. International growth has so far been unable to fully offset the weakening core business, though it is becoming an increasingly strategic pillar for the company as it seeks to counter subdued domestic consumption.

Analysts Turn Cautious

That combination of domestic saturation and overseas hurdles has also chipped away at analyst confidence. On Wednesday, JPMorgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral and slashed its price target to HKD 88 from HKD 124. The brokerage cited the ongoing weakness of China's auto sector, mounting cost pressure on upstream components, and regulatory uncertainty as reasons for its more guarded stance.

The cautious tone is reflected in the chart as well: year-to-date, the shares are down 22 percent. Investors hoping for concrete insight into how the price war is affecting profitability will have to wait until October 30, 2026, when BYD is scheduled to publish its third-quarter report.