BYD's Export Engine Powers a Profit Rebound as JPMorgan Steps Back

BYD sold 463,561 new-energy vehicles in September, but nine-month sales fell 3.94% as JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral.

BYD closed out September with 463,561 new-energy vehicles delivered, a figure that nudged its Frankfurt-listed shares 1.3% higher to EUR 8.63 on Thursday. The headline number, however, tells only part of the story: the Chinese automaker is leaning harder than ever on buyers beyond its borders while its home turf turns increasingly hostile.

Passenger cars accounted for 456,713 of the monthly total. Battery-electric models made up 273,143 units, with plug-in hybrids contributing the remaining 183,570. Overseas demand did the heavy lifting — exports reached 180,700 vehicles, and media reports put overseas shipments of passenger cars and pickups at 179,877.

Nine-Month Tally Still Trails Last Year

Zoom out and the picture loses some of its shine. Cumulative sales for the first three quarters reached 3,131,576 vehicles, a 3.94% decline from the same stretch a year earlier. Management flagged that the figures are unaudited and subject to later revision.

The drag comes from China itself, where soft consumer demand has collided with an escalating technology race. Rivals such as Geely are rolling out faster-charging battery systems, raising the competitive bar. Regulators added to the pressure on September 18, ordering a recall of 183,211 Tang and Qin vehicles. The action covers older models and centers on potentially faulty brake pedal stopper pads, which will be replaced at no cost to owners.

JPMorgan Trims Its Enthusiasm

Analysts have taken note. On Tuesday, JPMorgan downgraded the stock from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and slashed its price target to HKD 88 from HKD 124. The bank pointed to an expected second-half slump in China's auto sector, rising procurement costs, and a mix of political uncertainty and trade barriers abroad.

Even as sentiment cools on the sell side, BYD is pressing ahead with product expansion. Its commercial vehicle arm used the IAA Transportation trade fair on September 14 to unveil new heavy trucks and a tractor unit capable of up to 600 kilometers of range.

A Boardroom Refresh and an Overseas Ambition

Governance changes are moving in parallel. Following an extraordinary general meeting on Tuesday, Cai Hong-ping and Li Yong-zhao joined the board as non-executive directors, while Li Gang and Xu Tu were appointed independent non-executive directors for three-year terms. The reshuffle lands at a moment when the company is betting heavily on markets outside China, where it is targeting close to two million overseas deliveries this year and 2.5 million by 2027.

That overseas push is already paying off on the bottom line. Stronger sales abroad helped offset weaker domestic demand and pulled the company back onto a growth trajectory in the spring. Net profit for the second quarter of 2026 jumped 30% year over year to RMB 8.2 billion — the first quarterly earnings increase in more than a year.

First-Half Numbers Lay Bare the Cost

The broader interim report shows how much ground had to be made up. Revenue for the entire first half of 2026 fell 7.13% year over year to RMB 344.82 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 20.54%. Price competition at home was the chief culprit.

Management is counting on higher-margin overseas deliveries to close that gap in the coming quarters. Investors, for now, are holding back. The stock has lost 20% since the start of the year and trades at EUR 8.53 in pre-market action — 6.2% above its 52-week low, yet roughly 28% below where it stood twelve months ago, as structural weakness at home continues to overshadow the international expansion.