BYD Breaks Four-Quarter Losing Streak as Exports Surge and JPMorgan Turns Cautious

BYD's Q3 deliveries rose 18.75% to 1,323,065, ending four straight quarterly declines, but JPMorgan cut the stock to Neutral on weak China demand.

BYD's September delivery figures landed with a double-edged message for investors: the Chinese automaker has finally snapped a year-long run of shrinking quarterly sales, but the road back to growth remains paved with obstacles at home.

With 463,561 new-energy vehicles handed over to customers last month, BYD posted its strongest monthly showing of 2026. Battery-only passenger cars accounted for the bulk of that total at 273,143 units. Yet the equity market barely blinked. The stock slipped 1.0% in today's session to EUR 8.42, extending its year-to-date decline to 21%.

A Quarter That Changes the Narrative

The September tally feeds directly into a broader turnaround. Across the full third quarter, BYD shipped 1,323,065 vehicles, according to media reports — an 18.75% jump from the same period a year earlier. The result carries symbolic weight: it ends four consecutive quarters of declining volumes and puts the manufacturer back on a growth trajectory.

The cumulative picture, however, still bears the scars of that prolonged soft patch. Through the first nine months of the year, total deliveries reached 3,131,576 units, down 3.94% compared with the prior-year period.

Overseas Sales Carry the Load

What is keeping BYD's engine running is its overseas push. Of September's total, 180,700 units went to export markets, according to official figures. Reuters reported that shipments of passenger cars and pickups abroad climbed 153.9% year-on-year to 179,877 units — a surge that is increasingly offsetting lackluster demand among Chinese consumers.

That international momentum has become the company's central pillar, compensating for soft consumption sentiment in the People's Republic. Even so, the domestic slowdown continues to weigh on the overall numbers.

JPMorgan Sounds the Alarm

The challenges in BYD's home market have prompted Wall Street to reassess. On September 29, JPMorgan downgraded the automaker from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and slashed its price target from HKD 124 to HKD 88.

The US bank pointed to an expected cooling of China's auto sector and weak domestic demand, while also flagging rising procurement costs, regulatory uncertainty and looming trade barriers facing Chinese manufacturers abroad. Those same headwinds — higher input costs and political unpredictability — were cited by analysts as key drags on the business.

Charging Ahead on Infrastructure

Beyond its model lineup, BYD is betting on charging infrastructure to generate fresh momentum. One initiative aimed to expand its network to 2,000 fast-charging stations along highways by the end of September, covering just under a third of China's expressway service areas.

The export strategy is securing the company valuable market share outside Asia, but margin pressure is mounting. Whether international growth can durably offset the persistent weakness in China will determine how the business performs in the quarters ahead.