BP Shares Near 52-Week High as Refining Rebound and Crude Rally Converge

BP's stock is knocking on the door of its yearly peak after a session that combined a broad rally in crude with a sharply improved profit outlook from Wall Street. The shares closed Friday at EUR 7.39, up 3.1%, leaving them just below the 52-week high of EUR 7.42 touched during the same session.

The advance came as Brent crude, the North Sea benchmark, climbed 3.7%, according to Reuters. Fresh concerns over global supply, geopolitical risk in the Middle East — particularly around shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz — and uncertainty over Russian diesel deliveries all fed into the move. An unexpectedly large drawdown in US crude inventories added further support, giving European energy names a broad lift into the weekend.

Bank of America Raises the Bar

On Wednesday, Bank of America gave the stock a second tailwind by revising its earnings expectations for the British energy major sharply higher. The brokerage lifted its third-quarter profit estimate by more than 35%, pointing to a stronger oil and gas trading book, fatter refining margins and a lighter tax burden.

Even so, the analysts kept their "Underperform" rating on BP, nudging the price target to 525 GBp from 510 GBp. The upgrade to the numbers, in other words, did not translate into a more bullish stance on the equity itself.

The revision builds on the preliminary third-quarter figures BP published itself. The company guided to a refining marker margin of $46.7 per barrel for the period, a striking recovery from $29.6 in the second quarter and a key pillar under the operating result.

A Leaner Balance Sheet

Debt is falling just as fast. BP projected net debt of $13.5bn to $14.5bn at the end of the third quarter, down from $22.3bn at the close of June — a reduction of roughly $8bn in three months.

That improvement comes with a caveat. The group flagged post-tax impairments of $3.0bn to $4.5bn for the quarter, weighted toward the gas and low-carbon energy businesses, tempering expectations of an unblemished set of numbers.

Gulf Storms and a Government Lifeline

Operations have thrown up their own complications. On 10 October, BP halted production at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and pulled staff ahead of Hurricane Isaias. To bridge the weather-related disruption, the US Department of Energy granted BP America a temporary exchange of up to 2 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The oil is to be returned to the emergency stockpile in 2027, along with additional premium volumes.

What Comes Next

Investors now face a pair of dates that will test the preliminary guidance against hard figures. BP is due to publish full third-quarter results on 30 October 2026. Then, on 15 December 2026, the company will hold a strategy and outlook event in New York City — a marker for where management intends to take the group next.

In a separate organizational note, Reuters reported Monday that Meg O'Neill was unable to attend the World Petroleum Council Energy Congress in Riyadh because of travel disruptions. BP said it had made every effort to enable her participation in the conference.