BMW's Record M-Car Milestone and EV Push Meet a 24.8% China Collapse

BMW Q3 2026 deliveries fell 6.3% to 551,072 as China dropped 24.8%, while BEVs rose 7.2% and JPMorgan kept its Overweight rating.

BMW is pulling in two directions at once. On the factory floor and the design studio, the Munich-based automaker is rolling out new metal and retooling its oldest plant. In the showroom, the picture is far less flattering — particularly in China, where deliveries have fallen off a cliff.

The stock, for its part, has chosen to look past the gloom. Shares climbed 3.1% in yesterday's session, a gain that sits awkwardly beside a global delivery decline of 6.3% in the third quarter of 2026, when the BMW Group handed over 551,072 vehicles worldwide. Those figures are preliminary, per the company.

A Product Offensive on Two Fronts

BMW's near-term news flow has been dominated by launches rather than sales. On October 8, the company unveiled the fully electric iX3 M60 xDrive, a new M Performance model that slots into its expanding battery-powered lineup. Days earlier, on October 2, the Munich plant marked a production milestone — the one-millionth BMW M vehicle built there — while management confirmed that the home factory will build nothing but fully electric cars from 2027 onward.

That is a concrete industrial target, not evidence of commercial success. A model reveal says something about future supply, not about cars already sold, and the distinction matters when weighing the equity.

There was a non-electric headline too: on Monday, BMW presented the Concept 7 Protection, a concept vehicle built on the 7 Series sedan with an integrated protection package. It sits below the higher protection tiers of BMW's existing armored models.

China Weighs on the Global Tally

The delivery report published yesterday lays out the near-term challenge. Growth in Europe and the US, along with higher battery-electric volumes in Europe, was not enough to keep the group total in positive territory.

China was the drag. According to Reuters, BMW's deliveries there dropped 24.8% to 114,355 vehicles. Europe, by contrast, posted a gain of 2.7%, while US deliveries rose 2.5%. The dpa news agency points to a price war and a shrinking Chinese market as pressures weighing on German manufacturers.

The regional split explains the weakness of the headline number — and it also matters for how investors read the profit outlook. Stabilization in individual regions does not amount to a group-wide recovery.

EVs: A Bright Spot Without a Margin Verdict

Divergence by powertrain is even starker. Even as total deliveries fell, BMW sold more fully electric vehicles worldwide: BEV volumes rose 7.2% to 110,257 units, with European BEV deliveries surging 37.5%. The company also cites a strong order book for electric models and demand for the Neue Klasse, including the iX3.

That supports the growth story but does not, on its own, say anything about profitability. Delivery figures alone cannot show how regional disparities translate into revenue and earnings.

JPMorgan's Vote of Confidence

Weighing in on the other side of the ledger, JPMorgan has reaffirmed its "Overweight" rating and a price target of 82 euros. Analyst Jose M. Asumendi expects revenue of 29.7 billion euros for the reporting quarter and an operating result of roughly 1.68 billion euros, with a strong automotive business as the key earnings pillar.

That forecast is a projection, not a confirmation of reported figures — an optimistic counterweight to the soft delivery data. It also explains why the day's share-price move of 2.4% cannot be pinned to a single cause, given a news backdrop that carries both headwinds and hopeful expectations.

The November 4 Verdict

A conference call held yesterday preceded the quarterly report scheduled for November 4, 2026. That date is where the two narratives will collide: only then will it be clear whether the automotive business delivers the earnings support JPMorgan anticipates. Until the numbers land, hard delivery data and a bullish profit forecast remain in tension — and that gap is precisely what investors are being asked to price.