BMW's EV Momentum in Europe Can't Offset a Deepening China Slump

BMW Q3 deliveries fell 6.3% to 551,072 as a 24.8% China drop outweighed a 37.5% jump in European EV sales; Jefferies cut its price target to EUR 60.

BMW Group's third-quarter delivery report, released today, paints a sharply divided picture of the Munich automaker's global footprint. While battery-electric vehicles are gaining serious traction in Europe and the US, a steep contraction in China is dragging the group's overall numbers into negative territory — a split that leaves investors with a bright spot but no company-wide turnaround.

Europe's EV surge provides a genuine bright spot

European deliveries of fully electric BMW vehicles jumped 37.5% in the third quarter to 81,941 units, meaning battery-only cars accounted for 34.7% of everything the group shipped in the region. Those figures are preliminary, the company noted.

That pace far outstrips BMW's broader European performance. Total deliveries in the region rose 2.7% to 235,628 vehicles, while the US posted a 2.5% gain. Together, the two regions act as a counterweight to China, with European EV demand and the Spartanburg plant underpinning volumes, according to dpa-AFX. Even so, those regional advances were not enough to prevent a decline in worldwide shipments.

China's price war overwhelms the regional gains

In BMW's China sales region, third-quarter deliveries tumbled 24.8% to 114,355 vehicles. The group is contending with a price war and a shrinking market there, dpa-AFX reported. The challenge is therefore not merely one of softer demand — the reported pricing battle is simultaneously making the operating environment tougher. What matters for reading the group's numbers is that the positive momentum elsewhere has yet to offset that burden.

Globally, BMW Group delivered 551,072 vehicles in the third quarter of 2026, a decline of 6.3% compared with the same period a year earlier. That regional divergence remains the defining feature of the sales tally: growth in Europe and the US stands against a far steeper percentage drop in China.

Nine-month figures confirm the downward trend

Over the first nine months of 2026, worldwide deliveries reached 1,707,799 vehicles — 4.9% fewer than in the prior-year period. The longer-term picture, too, remains one of contraction, which is why the EV success should be read as a support rather than proof of a broad recovery.

Worldwide, deliveries of pure electric vehicles climbed 7.2% in the third quarter to 110,257 units, moving against the declining overall volume. For investors, the key takeaway lies in that contrast: BMW is making headway on fully electric cars and growing in key sales regions, but as long as the China slump overshadows those gains, no group-wide sales turnaround can be inferred.

A November date and a fresh price target frame the debate

Attention now shifts to the quarterly statement for the period ending September 30, 2026, scheduled for November 4, 2026. Commentary on revenue, earnings and the further course of business will be decisive for how the stock is valued. Just how much clarity is needed was underscored by Jefferies, which on October 5 cut its BMW price target to EUR 60 from EUR 70 while keeping a "Hold" rating.

Analyst Philippe Houchois pointed to a lack of management confidence on revenue and vague statements about capital returns at the capital markets day, compounded by reduced revenue and earnings forecasts for 2027. The critique identifies two distinct problem areas: the operating outlook and the question of how BMW returns capital to shareholders. The quarterly statement is therefore an orientation point for investors — though it should not be equated with the release of finalized quarterly figures.

Buyback presses ahead as new models roll out

BMW published a further interim notice on its 2025/2027 share buyback program yesterday, disclosing that it acquired 830,852 ordinary shares in the past week — a concrete capital-return measure documented in the mandatory filing. The repurchases and the analyst criticism touch on the same subject but answer different questions. The purchases demonstrate execution of the existing program, whereas Houchois's objection concerned the statements on capital returns at the capital markets day. The buyback notice alone therefore cannot support any broader conclusion about future distribution policy.

On the product side, BMW unveiled the fully electric iX4 on Thursday. Two drivetrain variants are announced for its market launch in March 2027, with the range-topping iX4 M60 xDrive set to follow shortly afterward. For valuation purposes, these strands remain separate: the model debuts concern the product offering, the buyback concerns capital returns, and the announced quarterly statement turns the spotlight on operating performance — the yardstick against which revenue and earnings expectations must now be measured.