BMW's Buyback Rolls On as China's 24.8% Slide Tests Analyst Resolve

BMW repurchased 830,852 shares for EUR 44.5M as Q3 deliveries fell 6.3%, with China down 24.8% and analysts split on the stock.

BMW kept its share repurchase machine humming last week, picking up 830,852 ordinary shares for a total of EUR 44,508,127.30. The disclosure, published Monday, covers the latest installment of the 2025/2027 buyback program and brings cumulative purchases in its third tranche to 8,899,331 shares.

That steady capital return stands in sharp contrast to the operational picture emerging from the company's delivery data — and to the split verdict on Wall Street.

A Quarter of Two Halves

Worldwide deliveries fell 6.3% in the third quarter of 2026 to 551,072 vehicles. The headline number, however, masks a widening regional divide. China collapsed by 24.8%, a decline that overwhelmed gains elsewhere: Europe added 2.7% and the United States 2.5%. Growth in Western markets simply wasn't enough to plug the Chinese hole.

The drivetrain mix told a similarly uneven story. While total volumes slipped, fully electric deliveries climbed 7.2% year-on-year to 110,257 units. BMW reinforced that push on October 8, unveiling the all-electric iX3 M60 xDrive as the performance-oriented member of the lineup. Production is slated to begin in spring 2027 at the Debrecen plant.

Analysts Diverge Ahead of the Print

Against that backdrop, BMW shares jumped 3.1% yesterday. Media reports pointed to a so-called pre-close call on Tuesday midday as a possible trigger, with the conversation apparently tempering previously downbeat expectations. The link remains unconfirmed — any causal explanation for the move is speculation, not established fact.

The analyst community itself is far from united. JPMorgan reaffirmed its "Overweight" rating and a EUR 82 price target yesterday, with analyst Jose M. Asumendi projecting third-quarter revenue of EUR 29.7 billion and operating profit of roughly EUR 1.68 billion. Those are forecasts, not reported results. Jefferies, by contrast, stuck with "Hold" and a EUR 60 target on Sunday; analyst Philippe Houchois cited likely weak figures across European automakers and did not rule out further provisions at BMW.

Severance Offers Add a Personnel Dimension

Complicating the outlook further, BMW has launched a severance program, according to Handelsblatt. Tens of thousands of employees received offers by email on Thursday, after which the company's HR portal went down temporarily.

For investors, the buyback and the delivery trends represent separate sides of the same decision. A repurchase program is no evidence of recovering vehicle demand, just as weak deliveries say nothing about how far BMW will push its buyback. What matters now is whether regional gains can eventually offset the Chinese decline — and whether the optimism stirred by this week's analyst call survives contact with the actual numbers. The delivery figures reported so far remain preliminary and subject to revision.