BMW Pushes Dealer Overhaul to 2028 as Investors Weigh EV Momentum Against China's Drag

BMW postpones agency sales model to 2028, cuts 8,000 jobs, and lowers profit outlook as EV sales rise.

The German automaker's retail transformation is now running on a slower clock than its factory-floor revolution. BMW Deutschland has again postponed the rollout of its contested agency sales model, pushing the start date to no earlier than July 1, 2028 — roughly two and a half years behind the original schedule that had targeted early 2026. Dealers were informed of the latest delay in early August, according to media reports, even as Sweden and Poland remain slated for a summer 2027 launch.

The postponement lands at a delicate moment for the Munich-based group, which is simultaneously executing a workforce reduction, absorbing a sharp profit decline, and betting its recovery on a new generation of electric vehicles.

Profit Warning Reshapes the Year

The immediate catalyst for the current pressure was the half-year report released on July 30. Pre-tax earnings tumbled 35.1 percent in the second quarter to EUR 1.697 billion, dragging the EBT margin down to 5.4 percent. The auto division's EBIT margin halved from 5.4 percent to 2.3 percent in the same period, and management responded by slashing its full-year guidance: the automotive EBIT margin is now expected to land between 1 and 3 percent, a significant downgrade from the previously targeted 4 to 6 percent.

China remains the primary sore spot. Second-quarter deliveries in the region collapsed by 30.2 percent, compounding a 20.4 percent first-half decline. Group-wide, BMW handed over 1,156,742 vehicles in the first six months, down 4.2 percent year on year. The picture was markedly different elsewhere: Europe advanced 5.4 percent and the United States gained 3.9 percent, underscoring how dependent the company's near-term fortunes have become on markets outside its largest single-country exposure.

Cost Cuts Without Compulsory Layoffs

Management and the works council have agreed on a personnel restructuring program that will trim around 8,000 positions by 2027 — roughly 5 percent of the workforce, with Germany bearing the brunt. The program begins in October and will rely exclusively on voluntary severance packages, with no compulsory redundancies. Of the 154,000 employees worldwide, about 85,000 are based in Germany, where more than half of the cuts are expected. BMW has set aside approximately EUR 1 billion for the measures, including a three-digit million-euro charge in the current year.

The personnel shuffle extends to the boardroom as well: Dorothea von Boxberg, formerly CEO of Brussels Airlines, takes over the human resources portfolio from Ilka Horstmeier on September 1.

The Neue Klasse Counterweight

Amid the cost discipline, the electric vehicle pipeline is showing signs of life. BEV deliveries rose 5.2 percent in the second quarter to 116,807 units, with Europe posting a striking 38 percent jump to 81,445 vehicles — momentum attributed to the market launch of the BMW iX3, for which the company reports roughly 100,000 orders worldwide.

Production of the i3, built on the Neue Klasse platform, began at the Munich plant in August, and the facility is scheduled to produce exclusively electric vehicles from 2027. Additional sites in Spartanburg and San Luis Potosí are expected to follow in 2026 and 2027. The i3's 800-volt charging architecture and WLTP range of up to 912 kilometers are cited as meaningful technological advances that could help win back European customers.

There have also been legal and commercial resolutions. BMW settled its brake-system dispute with Aumovio Germany, the automotive arm of the former Continental group, which will pay BMW EUR 350 million in two installments. In return, BMW is awarding new contracts worth more than EUR 1 billion.

A Share Price Hugging the Floor

The market's verdict on this mixed picture has been unforgiving. The stock recently traded at EUR 58.16, barely above its 52-week low of EUR 56.40 set on July 24. The shares have lost 38 percent since the start of the year and 36 percent over the past twelve months. At roughly 25 percent below the 200-day moving average of EUR 78.04, the technical picture suggests the downtrend is structural rather than a short-term wobble.

A share buyback program has been running quietly in the background, with BMW acquiring around 1.76 million shares between July and August at prices ranging from EUR 56.76 to EUR 61 — a signal that management views current levels as undervalued. The stock closed the most recent session at EUR 57.86, about 2 percent above its 52-week low and roughly 41 percent below the December high.

Analysts have tempered their enthusiasm as well. Bernstein Research lowered its price target from EUR 85 to EUR 82 on July 31, though it maintained an "Outperform" rating — a sign that even constructive observers have recalibrated expectations following the second-quarter numbers.

What Investors Are Watching

The decisive question is whether the Neue Klasse's momentum can offset the structural decline in China. The second quarter's 5.2 percent BEV growth, driven by the iX3's European ramp-up, offers a template for how the balance might shift — but a 30 percent drop in China is not easily neutralized by gains elsewhere.

The next concrete test arrives with third-quarter delivery figures, which will show whether the roughly 100,000 iX3 pre-orders translate into actual sales. Also on the watchlist: whether the September 1 arrival of the new HR chief smooths the path for the voluntary severance program, and whether the delayed agency model — now set for mid-2028 — signals broader caution about the pace of the company's transformation. For now, the bull case rests on cost discipline, a credible EV product cycle, and capital returns; the bear case hinges on China's trajectory and the risk that margin recovery takes longer than the market is willing to wait.