BMW Balances Buyback Momentum Against a 7% Revenue Headwind

BMW is still writing cheques for its own equity even as the core car business sputters. In an interim disclosure published Tuesday, the Munich group reported buying back 245,796 ordinary shares for EUR 13,174,893.31 during the reporting week through Sunday — a transaction that sits inside the company's 2025/2027 repurchase programme.

The buyback news landed alongside a more sobering signal from the analyst community. Jefferies kept its "Hold" rating on BMW and reiterated a EUR 60 price target, with analyst Philippe Houchois trimming his estimates after the company's preliminary third-quarter release. He now expects a 7% decline in automotive revenue, citing weaker unit sales, inventory reduction and a less favourable product mix. That figure is a forecast, not a reported result.

What the Delivery Data Shows

The backdrop is a mixed sales picture. Worldwide deliveries in the third quarter of 2026 fell 6.3% to 551,072 vehicles. China was the sharpest drag, with volumes down roughly a quarter. Europe and the US, by contrast, expanded — a regional split that cautions against reading the numbers as a broad recovery.

Battery-electric vehicles offered the one clear bright spot: third-quarter BEV deliveries rose 7.2% to 110,257 units. Over the first nine months, however, they remained below the prior-year level, so the latest gain does not yet amount to sustained growth.

Two Houses, One Cautious Verdict

Jefferies is not alone in tempering expectations. On 9 October, UBS cut its BMW price target to EUR 60 from EUR 70 while keeping a "Neutral" stance, pointing to pressure from Chinese competitors and lowering profit estimates ahead of the European auto sector's quarterly reporting season. The two houses arrive at similar caution from different directions — Jefferies from revenue weakness, UBS from competitive intensity.

Management, for its part, has confirmed that the share purchases will continue beyond November, according to Jefferies. That forward guidance describes planning rather than executed trades, and it does nothing to alter the operational strain in the car division.

The 4 November Test

The company's quarterly statement for the period ending 30 September 2026 is scheduled for 4 November 2026, and it will be the first hard check on Houchois's revenue call. Until then, investors face a clear divide: capital returns are running on schedule, while the automotive business absorbs softer volumes and a shifting mix. The positive slice of the delivery report — electric growth — is not on its own enough to justify a more constructive fundamental view. What matters is how that uneven picture translates into revenue and earnings.