BMW Analysts Split on Valuation as Severance Rollout Strains Internal Systems

Deutsche Bank keeps Buy on BMW with a 71-euro target as Jefferies holds at 60 euros and JPMorgan stays Overweight at 82 euros ahead of Q3.

Deutsche Bank Research reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on BMW today with a price target of 71 euros, even as it flagged a cluster of headwinds heading into the quarterly report. Lower sales volumes, currency effects, raw material costs and depreciation charges are all expected to weigh on results, the bank said. The endorsement, in other words, offers little comfort about the operating business itself — it pairs a constructive view of the equity with an expectation of near-term drag.

That stance sits at odds with Jefferies, which on Monday reiterated a "Hold" call and a 60-euro target. Analyst Philippe Houchois described full-year expectations as fragile given likely weak figures from European manufacturers, and did not rule out further provisions at BMW. The two houses thus diverge on both the recommendation and the valuation, a reminder that soft trading does not automatically translate into a bearish case — what matters is how much weight each analyst assigns it.

JPMorgan landed on the optimistic side of the ledger, confirming an "Overweight" rating and an 82-euro price target a day earlier. Analyst Jose M. Asumendi penciled in third-quarter revenue of 29.7 billion euros and an operating result of roughly 1.68 billion euros — projections, not reported figures. The bullish call provides a counterweight to concerns about the business, though it does not rule out the possibility of additional charges.

Deliveries Paint a Mixed Regional Picture

Caution still has plenty of raw material. Worldwide deliveries fell 6.3% in the third quarter of 2026, with China down 24.8% — a far sharper contraction than the group as a whole. Europe and the United States, by contrast, posted gains, and fully electric vehicles also advanced. The picture is uneven by region and by powertrain rather than a uniform recovery.

The share price, meanwhile, rose 3.1% yesterday. Media reports suggest a so-called pre-close call with analysts on Tuesday midday may have helped temper previously downbeat expectations, though the link is not confirmed — the explanation for the move remains conjecture. That shifts the focus away from any confirmed operating rebound and toward expectations ahead of the next earnings release.

Debrecen Ramp-Up Runs Alongside Job Cuts

Behind the analyst debate, BMW is pressing ahead with the ramp-up of its Hungarian plant. According to Handelsblatt, the company sends workers from German sites to Debrecen several times a week to qualify local staff and support the production launch. BMW said temporary international assignments are standard practice when new plants come online. The report describes support within the production network and offers no basis on its own for inferring an additional hit to earnings.

On the personnel side, Handelsblatt reported on October 8 that BMW is offering individual severance packages to employees in Germany, with plans to cut around 8,000 positions worldwide by the end of 2027. The program has now gone live: tens of thousands of staff received offers by email on Thursday, after which the HR portal went down temporarily.

For investors, these developments sit side by side — a new plant being brought up to speed while headcount is being reduced — and analysts are weighing the outlook differently. Deutsche Bank's buy case remains explicitly tied to expected headwinds, while Jefferies emphasizes the vulnerability of full-year forecasts. A uniform positive re-rating cannot be read into either.

The delivery figures reported so far are preliminary and subject to change. Any sentiment boost from the analyst call will ultimately have to prove itself against the hard numbers.