Bayer Wins Twin Drug Approvals as Broker Views Diverge and Cash Flow Stays in the Red

Two regulatory green lights for Bayer's pharmaceutical arm have prompted Jefferies to declare the risk attached to the company's drug pipeline "significantly lower," even as the broker kept its neutral stance on the stock. Analyst Michael Leuchten called the US decision on Asundexian an expected one, reaffirming a "Hold" rating and a price target of EUR 48.50.

The FDA cleared Asundexian under the brand name Sunharbo to cut the risk of a repeat stroke in adults who have recently suffered a non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke or a high-risk transient ischemic attack. The medicine is to be given alongside an antiplatelet agent, and Bayer is billing it as the world's first approved factor XIa inhibitor.

A second approval landed in China, where regulators gave the nod to Sevabertinib as a first-line treatment for patients with HER2-mutated non-small cell lung cancer. Bayer said the decision rests on data from the ongoing Phase I/II SOHO-01 trial.

Guidance Raised, but Cash Still Draining

The clinical wins sit alongside an improving earnings picture. Bayer lifted its full-year 2026 outlook for EBITDA before special items on 3 November to a range of EUR 9.8 billion to EUR 10.3 billion, and also nudged up its free cash flow forecast — though that figure remains firmly negative at minus EUR 1.5 billion to minus EUR 0.5 billion.

Third-quarter 2026 group sales came in at EUR 10.1 billion, a reported increase of 4.1% and a rise of 1.9% once currency and portfolio effects are stripped out. EBITDA before special items climbed to EUR 1.62 billion, up 6.9%.

A Courtroom Win and a Settlement Clock

On the litigation front, Bayer subsidiary Monsanto won its first glyphosate case in Missouri since the US Supreme Court's ruling, with all twelve jurors siding with the company, according to Bayer. The verdict came roughly two weeks ago.

Separately, CEO Bill Anderson expects a settlement over the Roundup claims — worth USD 7.25 billion — to be wrapped up before Christmas, Reuters reported, citing remarks made on 3 November.

Brokers Pull in Opposite Directions

Goldman Sachs moved the other way from Jefferies on 4 November, raising its Bayer price target to EUR 66.00 from EUR 63.50 while keeping a "Buy" rating, according to media reports. The split leaves the two houses far apart on where the shares should trade.

Investors had already voted with their feet: Bayer stock gained 3.3% yesterday as news of the Sunharbo clearance circulated.

Beyond the pill bottle, Bayer said on 4 November that it will roll out 17 new biological products across Latin America by 2030. The lineup includes biopesticides and crop-performance agents, with the company framing the launch as a multi-year push in the region.