Bayer Wins Chinese Green Light for Sevabertinib as Broker Targets Diverge

Bayer's share price closed Friday at EUR 55.08, a level that sits awkwardly between two competing broker valuations and above the target set by one of them. Jefferies lifted its price target from EUR 46 to EUR 48.50 that same day while keeping a "Hold" rating, a figure that remains below the stock's latest close. DZ Bank, by contrast, raised its fair value to EUR 64 on Thursday and reaffirmed its buy recommendation — putting its assessment comfortably above the market price.

The split verdict caps a week in which the German group delivered a string of pipeline and litigation updates alongside its quarterly results. Analyst Michael Leuchten, who signed off on the Jefferies note, reportedly positioned his revised forecasts at the lower end of Bayer's own full-year guidance range.

Guidance Raised Across the Board

Bayer used the quarterly release to lift its 2026 outlook for group EBITDA before special items to EUR 9.8–10.3 billion, up from a previous range of EUR 9.6–10.1 billion. Management pointed to a stronger trajectory in the pharmaceuticals division and a recent courtroom victory in the glyphosate litigation as the drivers behind the upgrade.

The Pharmaceuticals margin target was also raised, to 25–27%. Free cash flow guidance improved as well, with the company now projecting a range of minus EUR 1.5 billion to minus EUR 0.5 billion. Net financial debt is expected to land between EUR 28.0 and EUR 29.0 billion by year-end.

Those brighter forecasts came despite a downbeat bottom line. Bayer posted group revenue of EUR 10.1 billion for the third quarter of 2026 and EBITDA before special items of EUR 1.62 billion, but a net loss of EUR 672 million — or roughly EUR 0.7 billion — weighed on the result. Impairments at both the Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Health units contributed to the shortfall.

Two Chinese Approvals in Quick Succession

On the regulatory front, Bayer announced Wednesday that China had approved Sevabertinib as a first-line therapy for adults with advanced HER2-mutated non-small cell lung cancer. The decision rests on data from the Phase I/II SOHO-01 trial, according to the company.

The cancer drug clearance follows a separate Chinese approval disclosed on 26 October for Asundexian, indicated to reduce stroke risk following certain ischemic strokes or high-risk transient ischemic attacks.

Missouri Jury Sides with Monsanto

Bayer's litigation narrative also shifted on 30 October, when a Missouri jury unanimously rejected claims brought by three women against Roundup. Reuters described the outcome for Bayer subsidiary Monsanto as an early signal of how further cases might fare.

Latin America Push and Upcoming Calendar

Beyond pharmaceuticals, the company unveiled plans to introduce 17 new biological products across Latin America by 2030, with eight of them earmarked for Brazil, according to Reuters.

Investors will next look to the AHA Scientific Sessions running 6–9 November 2026, where Bayer has said it will present data on cardiovascular, renal and stroke therapies. Full fourth-quarter 2026 figures are scheduled for release on 24 February 2027.