Bayer's Two-Pronged Rebound: Can Pharma's New Guard Fill the Void Left by Eylea?
Published on 09/04/2026 at 08:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The German conglomerate finds itself at a delicate juncture where investor enthusiasm is running ahead of operational proof. After a twelve-month surge that has lifted the shares by 73 percent to €49.54, the market has already priced in a considerable amount of good news. The question now is whether the underlying businesses can deliver on that optimism — and the answer may hinge on a pharmaceutical division that has quietly been rebuilding its growth engine while the agricultural arm grabs the headlines.
While Bayer navigates the risks of a complex global business, workplace safety brings its own set of challenges that demand careful attention. Many employers underestimate the gaps in their safety documentation until an incident exposes them. A free toolkit with 41 ready-to-use checklists and templates helps you identify and address those gaps before they become costly problems. Download the free Risk Assessment Toolkit
A Pharma Renaissance Beneath the Surface
The most compelling evidence that Bayer's drug unit is turning a corner emerged from fresh clinical data on Kerendia, the finerenone-based medication that is rapidly becoming a cornerstone of the company's pharmaceutical portfolio. Trial results released this week showed the drug slowed kidney function decline in patients with hypertensive nephropathy — kidney damage caused by chronic high blood pressure — while also reducing combined risks for renal and cardiovascular events.
The commercial significance is considerable. Kerendia and its oncology counterpart Nubeqa together grew 66 percent in the second quarter of 2026, a striking contrast to the pharma division's overall 3.6 percent revenue decline during the same period. The culprit behind that slide is Eylea, once the division's workhorse, which has shed 27 percent of its sales to biosimilar competition. With that erosion showing no signs of abating, Bayer needs its newer products to step up — and the expanded indications for Kerendia could substantially widen its addressable market beyond the diabetic kidney disease it currently treats.
Pipeline Momentum Across the Board
The pharma division's prospects extend beyond Kerendia. Asundexian, an investigational drug, has secured accelerated review status in both the United States and China, with a potential market launch targeted for late 2026 or early 2027. Together, these assets are expected to cushion the blow from Eylea's decline over the medium term.
The chemical industry's improving outlook in Germany highlights how closely business performance and safety compliance are intertwined. For companies handling hazardous substances, meeting COSHH obligations is a legal requirement that many find difficult to manage efficiently. A free toolkit with 43 customisable templates and checklists helps you document dangerous-substance risk assessments properly and stay compliant. Get the free COSHH Toolkit
Meanwhile, the crop science business is pursuing its own growth narrative. A confirmed five-year plan and a slate of new crop protection products are designed to inject fresh momentum into the agricultural segment, though analysts caution that announced milestones have yet to translate into measurable revenue contributions. The company is also broadening its innovation footprint through collaborations with Berlin's Charité hospital on gene and cell therapies and with the University Medical Center Göttingen via its BAYPAT subsidiary.
Reading the Technical Tea Leaves
The share price action reflects a market that has warmed considerably to Bayer's story. At Thursday's close of €49.54, the stock sits just 1.9 percent above its 50-day moving average of €48.63 — a modest cushion that suggests consolidation following the recent rally rather than a fresh breakout. The shares have gained 34 percent since the start of the year and remain 8 percent below the 52-week high of €53.86 reached in July.
That narrowing gap to the recent peak cuts both ways. A sustained run of positive catalysts could push the stock through resistance, but the current valuation leaves little room for disappointment. Should the crop science pipeline fail to deliver tangible sales contributions or the chemicals environment deteriorate, the thin distance to that moving average could quickly transform from a support level into a test of investor conviction.
The Macro Backdrop and Lingering Overhangs
External conditions have turned marginally more supportive. The Ifo business climate index for Germany's chemical industry improved markedly in August, with the assessment of current conditions turning positive for the first time in four years. Industry association VCI cautions, however, that part of this brightening reflects the temporary disruption caused by the Hormus blockade — a special situation that may not persist.
Legal uncertainties continue to cast a shadow over the equity story. The hearing for final approval of the glyphosate settlement has been postponed to September 14, keeping the litigation overhang firmly in view even as operational progress accumulates.
What to Watch
For investors, the coming weeks will be defined by whether Bayer can convert its pipeline promises into hard numbers. The company's trajectory now depends on two parallel tracks: crop science must demonstrate that its new products can generate real sales growth, while pharma must prove that Kerendia, Nubeqa and Asundexian can collectively offset the Eylea shortfall. The clinical data on Kerendia offers a tangible sign that the pharmaceutical arm is capable of generating its own momentum — but the market will want to see that translated into the quarterly figures before extending further credit to the shares.
