Bayer's Calendar Clears: A September Court Date and a Kidney Drug Data Drop Frame the Next Chapter

Bayer's glyphosate settlement hearing is set for Sept 14; Kerendia sales surge 75%, and debt forecast trimmed after Apollo deal.

The legal overhang that has shadowed Bayer for years is finally acquiring a concrete timeline. A federal appeals court has declined to postpone the glyphosate settlement fairness hearing, locking the session for September 14 — a date that investors now view as a potential inflection point rather than another procedural delay. The hearing was initially scheduled for August 19, but Bayer and plaintiffs' counsel jointly requested an extension to process opt-out applications, briefly pushing the calendar back in late August before the court sealed the new date.

The clarity arrives on the back of a meaningful legal victory from late June, when the US Supreme Court sided with the company 7–2, embracing the preemption doctrine. That ruling effectively bars plaintiffs from suing solely over the absence of a cancer warning on the label, stripping away a significant layer of litigation exposure. The upcoming settlement hearing is expected to add another pillar of legal certainty, though the underlying risk is not yet fully extinguished.

A Drug Story Emerges From the Pharma Portfolio

While the courtroom drama unfolds, Bayer is using the European Society of Cardiology conference in Munich — running through August 31 — to showcase a quieter but commercially significant narrative. The company presented eleven cardiovascular, renal, and stroke program updates, headlined by new subgroup data from the Phase III FIND-CKD trial. The analysis shows finerenone, marketed as Kerendia, slows the decline of kidney function in patients with hypertensive nephropathy, demonstrating efficacy beyond the current standard of care.

Kerendia has become the standout growth engine within a pharma division that otherwise largely stagnated in the second quarter. First-half sales reached EUR 603 million, a 75 percent jump year over year. The new chronic kidney disease data could broaden the drug's addressable market and reinforce its commercial trajectory, giving the pharma segment a much-needed growth pillar.

Operating Momentum Meets a Thinner Bottom Line

The operational backdrop is improving even as the profit picture remains mixed. Second-quarter group revenue rose 1.2 percent to EUR 10.87 billion, or 2.2 percent on a currency-adjusted basis, while adjusted EBITDA climbed 1.9 percent to EUR 2.14 billion. Crop Science delivered the quarter's surprise, with operating profit surging 30.2 percent to EUR 902 million. Core earnings per share, however, fell 16.7 percent to EUR 0.95 — a reminder that top-line strength is not translating evenly to the bottom line.

For the full first half, Bayer posted revenue of EUR 24.3 billion and EBITDA of EUR 6.6 billion, both growing in the mid-single digits. Management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance: adjusted EBITDA between EUR 9.6 billion and EUR 10.1 billion, with core EPS of EUR 4.30 to EUR 4.90. The full-year outlook also remains intact, with revenue projected between EUR 44.7 billion and EUR 47.0 billion and core EPS of EUR 4.10 to EUR 4.80.

Debt Relief From the Apollo Deal

A quieter but strategically important development sits on the balance sheet. Following the sale of a majority stake in the LARC contraception business to Apollo-managed funds — a transaction expected to close in the third quarter, with Bayer retaining operational control — the company trimmed its year-end net financial debt forecast from EUR 32–33 billion to EUR 29–30 billion. The reduced leverage affords additional financial flexibility precisely while litigation costs remain a live variable.

The Market's Verdict So Far

Equity investors have rewarded the improving news flow. The shares closed Monday at EUR 49.05, up 0.6 percent on the day, leaving the stock roughly 33 percent higher year to date and 76 percent above its level twelve months ago. At the current price, the shares sit about 8.9 percent below the 52-week high of EUR 53.86 — and more than 90 percent above the year's low, underscoring the scale of the recovery since the autumn trough.

Analysts have responded in kind. Following the second-quarter print, Goldman Sachs lifted its price target to EUR 63.50 with a "Buy" rating, while UBS moved to EUR 62.00, also maintaining "Buy." The DZ Bank and Barclays raised their targets as well, though JPMorgan stayed more measured with an "Overweight" call and a EUR 50.00 objective.

With the September 14 hearing now fixed, the market's attention turns to whether the settlement process can deliver the legal closure that has eluded the company for years. Should the hearing proceed in the company's favor, a central uncertainty that has weighed on the stock since the Roundup litigation began could finally start to recede from the investment calculus.