Bayer Notches Unanimous Missouri Jury Win as China Approval and Upgraded Guidance Reinforce the Story

Bayer's legal and commercial calendars moved in tandem this week. A Missouri jury handed the company's Monsanto unit a clean sweep in a Roundup case, while Chinese regulators cleared a lung-cancer drug for first-line use — two developments that landed alongside a guidance raise issued roughly a week earlier.

The verdict, dated 30 October, was unanimous: all twelve jurors sided with the company, according to statements from Bayer. It marked the first trial of its kind since the US Supreme Court ruling, the company said. Shares rose 3.1% on the news.

Guidance lifted on pharma strength

The improved outlook, published about a week before the verdict, was driven chiefly by the pharmaceuticals division, according to Bayer. Reuters reported that the raise lifted the stock on the day it was announced.

For full-year 2026, Bayer now projects EBITDA before special items of EUR 9.8 billion to EUR 10.3 billion on a currency-adjusted basis, up from a prior range of EUR 9.6 billion to EUR 10.1 billion. The margin target for the pharma business was also nudged higher, with EBITDA before special items now seen at 25% to 27%.

Free cash flow will remain negative for the year, though less so than previously feared: the company guided to minus EUR 1.5 billion to minus EUR 0.5 billion. Net financial debt at year-end is now expected at EUR 28 billion to EUR 29 billion, a reduction from earlier projections.

Third-quarter figures mixed

Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 came in at EUR 10.1 billion, a reported increase of 4.1%. Stripping out currency and portfolio effects, sales grew 1.9%. EBITDA before special items advanced 6.9% to EUR 1.62 billion.

The bottom line told a different story. Bayer posted a net loss of EUR 672 million for the quarter, and adjusted earnings per share fell to EUR 0.31.

China green light for Sevabertinib

Separately, Bayer announced Chinese approval for Sevabertinib as a first-line treatment for adults with advanced HER2-mutant non-small cell lung cancer. The clearance covers use of the drug as the initial therapy for that patient group. Media reports noted that the quarterly results had already underpinned the stock's advance in the prior week.

Settlement and next catalyst

On the litigation front, CEO Bill Anderson expects court approval of the proposed glyphosate settlement before Christmas, according to Reuters. The package is valued at USD 7.25 billion.

Jefferies, meanwhile, maintained its "Hold" rating on the stock. Investors will get their next look at the numbers when Bayer reports fourth-quarter 2026 results on 24 February 2027.