BASF Signals Flexibility on Evonik Guarantees as Bernstein Backs 61-Euro Target

BASF has moved to clear one of the biggest hurdles standing between it and a deal for rival Evonik, indicating it would preserve the Essen-based specialty chemicals maker's existing German site and employment commitments in any takeover agreement. Two Reuters sources reported Monday that the Ludwigshafen group is prepared to carry over those protections, which bar compulsory redundancies in Germany through 2032.

The concession could revive a process that stalled after Evonik dismissed BASF's opening offer of EUR 22.15 per share as too low. At that stage, no active talks were underway between the two companies.

Conditions Attached to Any Improved Bid

People familiar with the situation say BASF is willing to sweeten its proposal, but only on its own terms. Before discussing better conditions, the group wants access to Evonik's books. No revised bid has been tabled so far, and Evonik has stressed that no negotiations are currently taking place between the two chemical producers. BASF has declined to confirm the Reuters report.

Bernstein Keeps Faith After North American Roadshow

While the M&A speculation rumbles on, sell-side support for BASF remains intact. Bernstein Research reiterated its "Outperform" rating on Wednesday, following investor meetings in North America, and left its price target at EUR 61. The brokerage continues to view the group's strategic positioning favorably.

The stock closed at EUR 52.59, a gain of 0.3%, leaving it about 4.5% below its 52-week high of EUR 55.05. Bernstein's target implies further recovery potential from current levels, with the shares already up 18% since the start of the year.

Buyback Program Keeps Rolling

Management has been making its own case on capital allocation. Under the repurchase program launched on August 3, BASF bought back 215,302 of its own shares in the period from October 5 through October 9. That brought total acquisitions via the market to 6,046,289 shares between the program's start and October 9.

Fatality Casts Shadow Over Ludwigshafen

The operational weeks were not without incident. On October 8, a 68-year-old employee of an external contractor was seriously injured during excavation work at the Ludwigshafen site and later died in hospital. Public prosecutors and police have taken over the investigation into how the accident occurred.

Third-Quarter Report Due October 28

Investors will get a clearer read on the underlying business when BASF publishes its full third-quarter 2026 report on October 28. Market participants are looking to the interim statement for signals on demand trends and on how much financial headroom the company has for a large-scale acquisition. The figures should also show whether operating performance justifies the analysts' optimism and how management frames its growth prospects.