BASF's Three Open Files: Taiwan Chips, a Nylon Venture and Evonik

BASF has stacked up three parallel strategic options — a semiconductor-materials build-out in Taiwan, a nylon-6 joint venture with Highsun, and a possible takeover of Evonik — and none of them is a done deal. That is the central takeaway for shareholders as the chemicals group prepares to publish its third-quarter 2026 statement on 28 October.

The Ludwigshafen-based company said it will release the Q3 report at 7.00 a.m. CET, with a press conference following at 10.30 a.m. CET. For investors, the date matters less as a diary entry than as a dividing line: it will separate what BASF has actually earned from what it is still only exploring.

Taiwan: intent, not capacity

On Tuesday BASF signed a memorandum of understanding with Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs covering its semiconductor-materials operations. Under the plan, the Kuanyin site in Taoyuan would gain additional production capacity for chip materials, alongside expanded quality analysis and a larger innovation centre. The technological focus includes chips with process nodes below 2 nanometres.

That is more than a pure manufacturing expansion — analysis and innovation are meant to grow at the same location. Yet the signature documents a shared direction, not extra production lines or the earnings they might generate. The distinction between strategic possibility and operational delivery is the one that counts for any re-rating of the stock.

Highsun: a 50:50 proposal on paper

Two days earlier, on Monday, BASF and the Highsun Holding Group put their names to a non-binding letter of intent covering their respective European activities along the polyamide-6 value chain. A joint venture with a 50% stake on each side is under review, and the partners are also examining whether to fold in worldwide extrusion operations outside North America. The downstream engineering-plastics businesses are explicitly excluded, which caps the scope of any reshuffle.

Investors should therefore not assume either a full merger or changes that have already happened. What exists is a strategic option whose execution remains open — and which ought to be judged separately from the operating numbers when they land.

Evonik: guarantees offered, offer rejected

Behind the deal-making stands chief executive Markus Kamieth, who publicly campaigned for an Evonik acquisition on Monday. According to Reuters, he dangled far-reaching employment and site guarantees. Evonik had already turned down an initial BASF bid of around €22.15 per Evonik share as too low, the report said. Public backing from Kamieth and the rejection of that first approach mark out the two sides' differing positions; a completed purchase is not on the table.

Bernstein Research restated BASF at "Outperform" with a €61 price target on Tuesday. Analyst James Hooper's sector outlook flagged the potential influence of mergers and acquisitions alongside the agricultural cycle, and the possible Evonik deal featured in that view. The note was a confirmation rather than an upgrade — it ties the valuation to strategic possibilities and cyclical factors without pre-empting how the takeover talks end.

What would actually move the needle

The bull case would be a step-by-step conversion of these intentions into substance. In Taiwan, added capacity combined with broader analysis and innovation could support the site's planned development, taking the sub-2-nanometre focus beyond an MoU and into operating capability. In parallel, the Highsun review could harden into a binding agreement, showing that BASF is advancing both the Taiwan build-out and the possible reorganisation of its European polyamide activities. The two serve different purposes: new capability at one site, and a possible bundling of existing businesses.

Such a combination would tell investors more than another announcement on its own. It could underpin the view that BASF delivers on its strategic agenda — provided the terms hold up and visible operational progress follows. The technology orientation in Taiwan, by itself, promises no secured earnings contribution, any more than the planned European partnership does.

The sceptic's file

The counterargument sits in the procedural status of each item. Taiwan rests on a memorandum of understanding; the Highsun arrangement is expressly non-binding. Anyone already valuing a successful expansion or a completed reorganisation is getting ahead of further decisions and their execution. The risk is not merely that individual steps turn out differently than hoped — any eventual rollout would also have to convince economically. Extra production capability becomes a solid argument for shareholders only once it proves itself in the business, and a joint venture is not a success merely because it has been founded.

Nor is Evonik the only other file. Handelsblatt reported on Monday that BASF continues to work on a possible Evonik takeover with extensive job guarantees. Here too the status is decisive: takeover efforts are not a completed transaction. Several options pursued at once raise the need for careful scrutiny before they raise corporate value.

The 28 October test

Until these projects move beyond letters of intent, they belong in the drawer marked development opportunities. Concrete implementation steps would give the positive thesis more weight; if the partnership structures under review fall through, or later economics fail to convince, the corresponding expectations would weaken.

The quarterly statement on 28 October 2026 is the next fixed point at which the strategic files can be set beside operating performance — and at which reported progress must be told apart from options still under review. The question for investors is not simply whether chip materials look attractive. It is how much benefit of the doubt they are willing to extend to BASF on execution. Taiwan offers a concrete strategic perspective; whether it grows into a sturdier investment case depends on the operating steps that follow and their economic impact.