BASF's Evonik Overture Meets Investor Doubts as Buyback Rolls On

Institutional investors are giving BASF's courtship of Evonik a distinctly cold shoulder. Following a string of meetings with shareholders across North America, Bernstein Research analyst James Hooper reported near-universal pushback on the potential synergies that could flow from the Ludwigshafen group's takeover of the specialty chemicals maker. The skepticism was striking for its uniformity, though it did nothing to shake Hooper's own conviction: he kept his "Outperform" rating on BASF intact and left his price target at EUR 61.

The lukewarm reception underscores just how difficult the terrain has become for large-scale chemical deals in Europe. Market watchers remain broadly cautious on industrial and upstream chemicals investments across the continent, with international competitive pressure and an uncertain regulatory backdrop weighing on sentiment in the traditional chemicals business.

A Bid That Won't Quite Close

BASF has signaled it would be willing to discuss a higher price for Evonik, but only after gaining access to the target's books. Its opening offer of EUR 22.15 per Evonik share was rebuffed as too low. Management in Ludwigshafen is reportedly also weighing commitments to the workforce, while Evonik insists no talks with BASF are currently taking place. From BASF's side, the company has said the course and outcome of the exploratory discussions remain open.

Politics is adding another layer of friction. According to media reports, the state government of North Rhine-Westphalia has rejected a BASF takeover of Evonik outright — a stance that would leave any combination facing substantial political and site-related hurdles well beyond the financial negotiating table.

Brussels in the Spotlight

Trade policy, meanwhile, has handed the sector a rare tailwind. Ahead of the upcoming EU summit in Brussels, reports of possible protective measures against Chinese chemicals imports moved into the spotlight, and dpa-AFX identified the summit agenda as the driving force behind renewed interest in the sector's shares. BASF stock climbed 1.9% on Wednesday to close at EUR 52.41.

The European chemicals industry has long been squeezed by cheap deliveries from Asia, and genuine safeguards at the EU level could bring meaningful relief on prices and margins. Backing for such measures is building in Berlin, where the German government is pressing for action ahead of the Brussels gathering — though a political decision on concrete steps has yet to be made, leaving trade policy an open risk factor for investors.

The Calendar and the Buyback

With the strategic debate still unresolved, attention is shifting toward BASF's operating performance. The DAX group will publish its third-quarter 2026 interim report on October 28 at 07:00 CET. Shares changed hands at EUR 52.31 on Thursday, keeping the stock up 18% since the start of the year.

Alongside the Evonik question, BASF is steadily retiring its own equity. The company bought back another 215,302 shares between October 5 and 9, bringing the total repurchased since the program began on August 3 to more than six million. Product development is advancing in parallel, with coolants and specialty plastics for AI data centers among the initiatives the group is pushing forward.