BASF Lifts 2026 Outlook as Analysts Split and Evonik Stays a Maybe

BASF has raised the bar for itself. Alongside third-quarter 2026 figures released yesterday, the Ludwigshafen group lifted its full-year forecast for EBITDA before special items to EUR 7.4–7.8 billion, up from a prior range of EUR 6.9–7.7 billion. The stock responded by adding 2.2% today.

The quarter gives that upgraded target something to stand on. Sales climbed 14% year on year to EUR 16.4 billion, while EBITDA before special items rose 14.9% to EUR 1,643 million — or roughly 15% to EUR 1.6 billion as reported. Revenue and operating profit grew at a similar clip, suggesting the larger business volume fed through to earnings rather than merely padding the top line.

Below that, the picture is less flattering. Net income for the period came in at EUR 155 million, with earnings per share of EUR 0.18. Those figures sit on a different level from adjusted EBITDA, and the raised operating guidance carries no equivalent promise for the bottom line. Investors would be wrong to treat the two as interchangeable.

Two houses, two directions

Analyst reactions were anything but uniform. JPMorgan lifted its price target to EUR 42 from EUR 40 yesterday but kept its "Underweight" rating. Bernstein Research moved the other way, trimming its target to EUR 59 from EUR 61 while reaffirming "Outperform." The two houses thus adjusted their marks in opposite directions without touching their stances.

Elsewhere, assessments published yesterday landed on "Buy." One pointed to the third quarter and to possible consolidation potential between BASF and Evonik; another confirmed a fair value of EUR 64. The spread of opinion still runs from cautious underweight calls to outright buy recommendations.

Kamieth keeps his wallet closed

On the Evonik question, CEO Markus Kamieth struck a restrained tone after the numbers. According to media reports, BASF will not pursue Evonik at any price — a deal would only go ahead if it creates value for BASF shareholders. Reuters quoted Kamieth describing a possible combination with Evonik as a "logical and sensible step," while the company made clear it does not intend to pay excessive prices for the specialty chemicals peer.

That discipline matters because no transaction has been confirmed. Until terms are fixed, any contribution from Evonik cannot be counted as a secured part of the investment case. A merger remains a separate strategic question from the operating story: a strong quarter does not automatically translate into endorsement of a deal, and price discipline narrows the strategic uncertainty without resolving it.

A nylon side letter

Evonik is not the only file on the desk. On 19 October, BASF signed a non-binding letter of intent with Highsun Holding Group covering a possible 50:50 joint venture for its European PA6 activities. The two companies are also evaluating whether to include worldwide extrusion operations outside North America in the arrangement.

For now, the upgraded guidance is the strongest argument in the bull case — provided the operating improvement holds and management sticks to its stated price discipline. If earnings momentum falters, the higher hurdle becomes an additional test rather than a cushion. The next hard checkpoint is the fourth-quarter 2026 statement on 26 February 2027, when investors can measure the full-year outturn against the newly raised target.