BASF Analysts Stay Bullish Even as Evonik Rebuffs Takeover Talks

BASF's October analyst scorecard lands on the friendly side: twelve of 19 ratings carry a Buy call, against five Holds and two Sells. Yet the same consensus that leans positive offers little in the way of upside, with the average price target sitting at EUR 54.08.

That gap between recommendation and expectation is the story. A Friday close of EUR 53.30 already puts the stock within touching distance of the mean target, so the bullish majority on its own is no argument for a big remaining re-rating.

A Wide Spread Behind the Average

Individual targets published in October run from EUR 40 to EUR 61, a range that shows how far apart analysts stand on what the shares are actually worth. The average smooths those differences without resolving them, which means the headline count of Buy ratings tells only half the tale. What matters just as much is the valuation scenario sitting behind each call.

Recent revisions illustrate the point. Deutsche Bank Research cut BASF to Hold from Buy on Monday, trimming its target to EUR 53 from EUR 60, citing greater complexity, execution risk and a heavier concentration on Europe. Bernstein Research moved the other way on conviction, keeping its Outperform rating on Thursday while shaving its target to EUR 59 from EUR 61.

Evonik Says No to Talks, Yes to Information

Behind the caution lies BASF's approach to Evonik. According to media reports, BASF is offering EUR 24 per share, valuing Evonik's equity at roughly EUR 11.2 billion — a premium of about 39% to the price before takeover interest became public.

Evonik reviewed BASF's letter and declined to enter negotiations on that basis, though it left the door open to a confidential exchange of information only. Formal talks have not begun, and Reuters reported that BASF met the refusal with incomprehension. Chief executive Markus Kamieth had stressed on Wednesday that BASF would not overpay for Evonik, saying any transaction would go ahead only if it created value for BASF shareholders.

For BASF investors, the two threads stay separate: analysts lean positive on the stock, while the fate of the takeover push remains unresolved. Nothing in the published targets amounts to a verdict on a possible deal.

Guidance Raised, but the Fourth Quarter Draws Doubts

On the operating side, BASF lifted its forecast for full-year 2026 on Wednesday. It now expects EBITDA before special items of EUR 7.4 billion to EUR 7.8 billion, up from a previous range of EUR 6.9 billion to EUR 7.7 billion.

Third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 14% year on year to EUR 16.4 billion, with EBITDA before special items up 15%. The closing quarter drew a cooler reception: according to dpa-AFX, both Jefferies and JPMorgan judged the updated outlook weaker than market expectations.

The net picture is narrower than the Buy count suggests — a friendly consensus, a broad spread of targets, and a share price already trading close to the average.