Barrick's Great Divide: A Nevada IPO Takes Shape While Pakistan's Security Woes Bite

Barrick's split creates a low-risk gold NewCo while retaining copper growth, but Reko Diq security issues cut 2026 capex guidance.

The gold miner's planned split is turning into a tale of two very different portfolios — one engineered for safety, the other absorbing the risk that the first was built to escape.

Barrick Mining's board approved the geographic separation back in February 2026, and the logic has only sharpened since. North American assets — Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo, Fourmile and the exploration ground that came with Newmont's contribution — are being packaged into a new entity, "NewCo," designed as a low-risk, dividend-heavy gold producer. What remains will be a growth-focused copper and "green metals" play, carrying the operational baggage that comes with doing business in less forgiving corners of the world.

That contrast was on full display this week. Barrick and Newmont finally buried the hatchet over their long-running Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, with Newmont paying $1.95 billion in cash to settle all outstanding disputes. The agreement folds Fourmile into the venture while Newmont chips in its Mike and Fiberline projects — and it clears the runway for NewCo's listing, slated for New York with a secondary Toronto listing before year-end. Mark Hill will run the new company, with a 10 percent minority stake floated in the IPO. Management described the process as "very close" to completion during the analyst call.

The timing is no accident. Gold prices are flirting with record highs, and the industry's biggest players are suddenly rediscovering their negotiating muscle. For Barrick, the Nevada truce does double duty: it settles a years-long feud and hands the company a fresh $1.95 billion war chest just as it prepares to spin off its crown jewels.

The Other Side of the Balance Sheet

But while the North American story is one of consolidation and preparation, the international portfolio is telling a different tale. Reko Diq — the massive copper-gold deposit in Pakistan's Balochistan province that will remain with the post-split Barrick — has hit a wall of security concerns.

Barrick has throttled back operations at the site, citing safety problems in the region and the broader Middle East. The company had flagged as early as February 2026 that it was reviewing the project amid rising security incidents in Balochistan. The financial impact is already visible: Barrick trimmed its 2026 attributable capital budget guidance to $3.8–4.2 billion, down from $4.0–4.45 billion, with reduced spending at Reko Diq the primary driver.

The project's scale makes the decision all the more striking. Reko Diq ranks among the world's largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits, with Barrick holding 50 percent, three Pakistani state-owned companies together owning 25 percent, and Balochistan's provincial government the remaining quarter. For 2026, the company is deliberately skipping plant construction at the site, cutting planned investments to $450–500 million. That is precisely the kind of country risk the North American spin-off is designed to shield investors from — and precisely the risk that will be concentrated entirely in the remaining entity after the split.

Cost Pressures Bite Even as Revenue Surges

The second-quarter numbers show how thin the margins have become even in the core business. All-in sustaining costs for gold climbed to $1,993 per ounce, up from $1,654 a year earlier, with Barrick pointing to lower ore grades at Carlin, Cortez and North Mara, higher fuel costs and rising royalties tied to elevated gold prices. Total costs per ounce rose 11 percent to $1,866.

Copper told a similar story. Production dipped 5 percent year-over-year to 56,000 tonnes — on plan, the company stresses — but unit costs jumped 32 percent to $3.39 per pound, with C1 cash costs up 37 percent to $2.47. The geopolitical backdrop adds another layer: the US-Israel-Iran conflict is pressuring oil supplies and, by extension, energy costs across the mining sector.

None of that stopped the top line from delivering. Adjusted earnings came in at 82 cents per share, beating the 78-cent analyst consensus, while revenue of $5.29 billion blew past expectations of $4.53 billion. Net income rose 50 percent to $1.22 billion, with adjusted EPS up 74 percent. Gold production of 796,000 ounces topped the company's own 730,000–770,000-ounce guidance, helped by an earlier ramp-up at Loulo-Gounkoto, faster-than-expected recovery at Pueblo Viejo after first-quarter maintenance, and record underground output at Cortez.

Management's confidence extends to capital returns. Total shareholder distributions surged 242 percent to $1.50 billion in the quarter, including $1.209 billion in buybacks under the ongoing $3 billion program — a signal that the board sees more value in its own stock than the market currently does.

A Market Waiting for Clarity

The share price reflects the uncertainty. Barrick closed Friday at C$57.80, up 1.3 percent on the day and nearly 7 percent above its 50-day average. The 74 percent gain over the past year underscores the gold sector's broader rally, yet the stock remains down 3.3 percent year-to-date and sits 22 percent below its January high of C$74.00.

Progress elsewhere suggests the company is not standing still. At Pueblo Viejo, 90 percent of affected residents have now accepted relocation packages, and the Lumwana mill expansion is on track to deliver first copper by the end of the first quarter of 2028.

For shareholders, the coming separation amounts to a referendum on how large a discount international operating risk deserves relative to a pure North American gold business. Barrick's own capital decisions this year — pulling money out of Pakistan while steering toward a Nevada listing — offer a fairly direct answer. The real test comes when NewCo actually hits the market and investors must price what the two companies have built together.