ASML's Record Quarter Draws Cheers From HSBC and Caution From JPMorgan and BofA

ASML closed out a busy week with an unusual split-screen: a record quarterly report card on one side, a fresh round of share purchases on the other, and a cluster of analyst notes that moved in opposite directions without anyone actually turning negative on the stock.

The Dutch chip-equipment maker said Wednesday that third-quarter 2026 revenue reached EUR 11.7 billion, with a gross margin of 57.5% and net profit of EUR 5.0 billion. It also nudged up the floor of its full-year guidance, lifting the low end of its 2026 sales range to EUR 44 billion from EUR 43 billion. The top of the range stayed put at EUR 45 billion — a detail worth flagging, since the adjustment was a one-sided move rather than a wholesale upgrade. For the fourth quarter, management pointed to revenue of EUR 14.2 billion to EUR 15.2 billion, a forecast rather than booked business.

Buybacks Keep Rolling

Separately, ASML disclosed repurchases totaling EUR 352,032,719 for the previous week, carried out across several trading sessions. The transactions fall under the company's existing buyback program — an execution update, not the launch of a new authorization.

The stock rose 2.5% on the day, helped along by a broader rebound in AI-linked and semiconductor names after the prior week's losses. Reuters attributed the sector bounce to lower bond yields and retreating crude prices. No company-specific catalyst was identified in that report, so the buyback disclosure and the rally are best kept in separate boxes rather than stitched into a cause-and-effect story.

HSBC Lifts, JPMorgan Trims

Analysts spent the back half of the week recalibrating. HSBC Global Investment Research on Friday raised its price target to EUR 2,261 from EUR 2,177 while keeping a buy rating, citing improved visibility on growth beyond 2028 and the order backlog. JPMorgan moved the other way on Thursday, cutting its target to $2,350 from $2,400 but sticking with an Overweight rating.

Bank of America also trimmed its target, to $2,858 from $2,915, while reaffirming its buy call. The bank pointed to lower valuation multiples across the sector as the reason — a mechanical recalibration of the yardstick rather than a downgrade of the business itself.

That distinction matters for anyone reading the week's headlines in sequence. A higher revenue outlook does not automatically translate into a higher price target; analysts can tighten their valuation assumptions and still stay constructive on the company. All three houses kept their positive recommendations intact, so the target cuts are not sell signals in disguise.

What the Numbers Actually Say

Strip away the noise and the fundamental picture is straightforward. Revenue, profit and margin all came in at record levels for the quarter, and the guidance bump — however modest — points upward. The buybacks document capital already earmarked for return to shareholders, while the fourth-quarter and full-year figures remain projections, not results.

The week's lesson is that business momentum and stock-market valuation are two different dials, and they don't always turn together. ASML turned up the first. The analysts, for their part, adjusted the second — some upward, some down — without abandoning ship.