ASML's Order Books Stretch Into 2028 as Analysts Split on How High the Stock Can Fly

JPMorgan keeps Overweight and EUR 2,100 target; BofA lifts fair value to EUR 2,557 on EUV demand and pricing.

Two of Wall Street's biggest names have turned more constructive on ASML Holding, though their revised targets tell very different stories about how much upside the Dutch lithography giant still has left. JPMorgan reaffirmed its Overweight rating and a EUR 2,100 price target, keeping the stock on its closely watched analyst focus list. BofA Securities went considerably further, lifting its fair value estimate to EUR 2,557 from EUR 2,452 while maintaining a Buy rating.

The divergence in targets reflects a shared but unevenly weighted conviction: demand for ASML's most advanced machines is running well ahead of what the market had penciled in.

EUV Slots for 2027 Are Essentially Gone

At the heart of the bull case is capacity, not sentiment. According to JPMorgan, order books for extreme ultraviolet lithography systems for fiscal 2027 are largely filled, and the company has already begun taking bookings for 2028. ASML expects to ship roughly 85 EUV units and 169 DUV immersion systems in 2027 — a schedule that analyst Sandeep Deshpande believes could carry further upside if the supply chain holds steady.

Early signals, in JPMorgan's view, point to 2027 business trends potentially outstripping current market expectations. Bloomberg-compiled consensus currently models revenue growth of about 28% for ASML in that fiscal year.

BofA's upgraded numbers rest on a similar foundation but add two additional levers: higher average selling prices for ASML's lithography systems and rising shipment volumes in both EUV and dry systems. The bank's 2028 forecast envisions EUR 76.57 billion in revenue against 120 EUV systems delivered.

A $224.5 Billion Equipment Market

Zooming out, JPMorgan projects global spending on semiconductor manufacturing equipment will reach USD 224.5 billion in 2027 — a 38% jump over the prior year. That figure frames ASML's position as the indispensable supplier at the sharp end of the AI buildout, where its monopoly on high-resolution lithography gives it leverage few capital equipment makers can match.

Intel is already putting the company's High-NA EUV technology to work, deploying it for select processor layers in its Intel 18A manufacturing process.

A Split Picture on the Ground

Not every data point supports the bullish narrative. CEO Christophe Fouquet has been blunt about Europe, stating that ASML sells "absolutely nothing" in its home region. He attributed the drought to a lack of investment in semiconductor fabs on the continent and absent local demand, and pressed European policymakers to create targeted incentives for chips manufactured within Europe. For now, international orders remain the load-bearing pillar of the business.

The stock itself has been choppy even as targets climb. Shares slipped 2.0% to EUR 1,594.80 in one recent session, while a separate trading day saw a 1.9% decline to a EUR 1,627.40 close. Over a seven-day stretch, the shares still managed a 1.8% gain. Year to date, the advance stands at 73%, underscoring how thoroughly the market has re-rated Europe's semiconductor bellwether.

Buyback Support Ahead of the Print

ASML has been putting its balance sheet to work while investors wait for fresh guidance. Under its existing repurchase program, the company bought back 277,000 of its own shares for a total of EUR 442,481,981 — a move that highlights the financial room it has heading into the next reporting cycle.

That cycle arrives on October 14, when ASML publishes third-quarter 2026 results. Beyond the headline numbers, the market will be listening for management's detailed commentary on the medium-term outlook for 2027 and 2028, along with the pace of order intake and production utilization. How strongly global bookings offset European reticence will be the central question of the day.