ASML's Order Book Is Full Through 2027 as the Sector Rediscovers Its Appetite for Chip Equipment

ASML closed at EUR 1,439.00 as EUV capacity is sold out through 2027 and JPMorgan reports plans to weigh building over 110 EUV machines in 2028.

ASML shares closed Friday at EUR 1,439.00, a modest gain of 0.9% on the day, but the headline number tells only part of the story. The Dutch lithography specialist has quietly locked in a revenue base that stretches years into the future: existing EUV production capacity is all but sold out through 2027, and chipmakers have already made binding commitments for the next-generation High-NA platform.

That backlog, described by CFO Roger Dassen, reflects a fundamental shift in how customers view the artificial intelligence boom. What began as cautious interest has hardened into firm orders, and the company is now weighing how aggressively to expand output to meet it.

JPMorgan Sees Room for a 2028 Step-Up

Analysts at JPMorgan reported Monday that ASML is evaluating options to build more than 110 EUV machines in 2028. Management has guided toward producing at least 80 units in 2027, with a targeted 30% increase the following year. The figures sketch a production ramp that would dwarf anything the company has attempted before.

News of the 2028 planning triggered a temporary pullback on Tuesday as investors debated the feasibility of such a steep trajectory. Yet the skepticism proved short-lived. Bernstein reaffirmed its buy rating on the stock the same day, according to media reports, signaling that the analyst community remains comfortable with the long-term demand picture.

A Campus in Eindhoven and a Pilot Line With TSMC

Physical expansion is already under way. On September 8, ASML broke ground on a major new campus in Eindhoven, designed to house office space, a logistics hub and modern manufacturing halls, with room for as many as 20,000 employees. The first phase is scheduled for completion in 2029.

The company is also deepening ties with leading chipmakers. Working alongside TSMC, ASML is participating in an industry initiative to introduce 12-inch photomasks, with a pilot line targeted for 2031 and volume deployment of High-NA systems in series production planned by 2033. Such timelines underscore the extraordinary lead times that define this business — and the moat they create around ASML's position as the world's sole supplier of cutting-edge EUV tools.

Analyst Endorsements Pile Up

The endorsement from Bernstein extends a run of supportive calls. J.P. Morgan restated its buy recommendation on September 14, and Bank of America Securities followed suit on September 16, with both houses arguing that the long-term growth drivers remain intact despite interim price swings.

For the full year 2026, management is targeting total net revenue of between EUR 43 billion and EUR 45 billion, with a gross margin in the 54% to 56% range, based on second-quarter figures.

A Broader Equipment Rally Lifts the Sector

ASML has not been moving in isolation. The stock added 2.3% on a separate session to close at EUR 1,456.80, carried by a sector-wide recovery among semiconductor equipment makers rather than any company-specific news. Market watchers attributed the advance primarily to expectations of future capital spending by chip manufacturers, not to near-term order flow.

The logic underpinning the rebound is straightforward: chipmakers must invest in new fabrication capacity well ahead of demand in order to produce future generations of chips at all. Even when short-term demand fluctuates, the technical necessity of high-precision exposure systems persists. When heavyweights such as Lam Research and Applied Materials post meaningful gains, ASML has historically benefited disproportionately from the return of confidence.

The shares remain some distance below their 52-week high of EUR 1,748.00. Since the start of the year, however, they are up 56%, a performance that — even after the recent consolidation — reflects the company's unchanged centrality to the global semiconductor supply chain.

What to Watch Next

Third-quarter results due October 14 will offer the clearest test of whether the optimism coursing through the equipment sector is translating into actual bookings. Until then, the combination of a sold-out order book, binding High-NA commitments and a steady stream of analyst backing gives investors plenty to weigh against the stock's distance from its yearly peak.