ASML's Home Market Goes Quiet While the Order Book Sells Out to 2027

ASML gains 66% this year, but a proposed US bill threatens China DUV sales, Europe buys zero machines, and 2028 EUV output is the next test.

ASML closed Friday's session at EUR 1,527.20, a modest 0.9% gain that hardly hints at the forces pulling the semiconductor equipment maker in opposite directions. The stock has climbed 66% since the start of the year, yet the company finds itself navigating a landscape where geopolitics, regional demand gaps, and production capacity are all moving at different speeds.

Washington's MATCH Act Looms Over China Sales

At the top of the risk list sits the proposed MATCH Act, a US legislative effort that would bar ASML from selling any immersion DUV machines to China. Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten raised the matter directly with US President Donald Trump on Thursday, according to Bloomberg, in an attempt to head off additional American export restrictions on the company.

Immersion DUV systems have accounted for a substantial share of ASML's shipments to China, which ranked among its largest customers in recent quarters. Losing that channel entirely would deal a serious blow to business with Chinese chipmakers. How far future restrictions actually bite into medium-term delivery volumes now depends on how the bill advances through Washington.

Zero Machines Sold in Europe

Away from the China debate, ASML's own executives have painted a stark picture of the home continent. Executive Vice President Frank Heemskerk said the company is currently selling no semiconductor manufacturing equipment in Europe at all, citing insufficient investment and the sluggish construction of chip plants. He warned that Europe risks falling behind the US, China, and India.

That gap has pushed ASML to lean harder on Asian growth markets. On 17 September, the company showcased its lithography solutions at SEMICON India in New Delhi, reaffirming its backing for India's semiconductor ecosystem. The contrast is sharp: while European fab projects stall, the US, China, and India are pouring massive sums into chip production.

Buybacks and a Second Campus in Brainport

ASML has been putting its own capital to work on two fronts. On Monday, it disclosed fresh execution details for its ongoing share buyback program, with three-digit million amounts deployed to repurchase stock. Such moves tighten the free float and give earnings per share a durable lift, offering investors a steady prop. The broader market backdrop was less kind — rising bond yields and climbing oil prices weighed noticeably on European equities.

On the industrial side, construction began on 8 September on a second major campus in the Brainport region. The site spans roughly 350,000 square meters and is designed to accommodate up to 20,000 jobs. The expansion is meant to secure future capacity for the most advanced lithography tools, with High-NA EUV at the center of those plans.

High-NA Alliances and a 2028 Output Question

Key customers are already lining up. Samsung Electronics expanded its strategic partnership on 8 September to integrate High-NA EUV systems into mass production of advanced DRAM by 2028. Intel Foundry, meanwhile, has processed more than 1,000,000 wafers on the new machines in test and development runs for processors.

Demand for cutting-edge chipmaking gear remains intense globally. According to Reuters, ASML is exploring ways to build more than 110 EUV systems in 2028, following a JPMorgan meeting with CFO Roger Dassen. Demand was described as very strong, and capacity for 2027 is nearly sold out. The bottleneck, increasingly, is not the order book — it is the factory floor.