ASML's European Order Book Hits Zero Even as Buybacks Roll Toward October 14

ASML booked no European lithography orders in 2026 and bought back 277,000 shares for EUR 442.5M, as UBS keeps Buy ahead of Q3 results on October 14.

European chipmakers have placed no orders for ASML lithography systems at any point during 2026, leaving the Dutch equipment maker's home-region revenue share at zero percent. Executive Vice President Frank Heemskerk confirmed the blank, and management has since opened talks with European policymakers aimed at reviving local semiconductor demand through stronger investment incentives. The push to expand regional fabrication capacity on the continent has yet to translate into a single order for ASML's high-end lithography tools.

That awkward demand picture sits alongside a capital-return program that shows no sign of slowing. ASML bought back 277,000 of its own shares across the five trading sessions from September 28 to October 2, a tranche worth EUR 442,481,981 in total. Daily outlays ranged from roughly EUR 76.5 million to just over EUR 98.4 million, and the transactions left the overall size of the existing repurchase program untouched.

Breaking the week down, the company picked up 50,000 shares on September 28, followed by 57,000 on September 29 and another 50,000 on September 30. Volume then ticked higher into the new month, with 60,000 shares acquired on each of October 1 and October 2.

UBS Keeps Its Faith

Analysts are staying constructive ahead of the numbers. François-Xavier Bouvignies of UBS reaffirmed his "Buy" rating in a September 29 research note, holding his price target steady at EUR 2,350.

Investors will get the full picture on October 14, when ASML releases its third-quarter 2026 financial report at 07:00, followed by a management conference call for investors at 15:00. Order intake and the capex intentions of global chipmakers are the two items the market is watching most closely.

Washington Pressure and the China Stockpile

Export rules for immersion DUV shipments to China remain a live theme. US officials and a Washington think tank have called for tighter restrictions, citing estimates that Chinese fabrication plants had accumulated 343 immersion DUV systems by early 2026. About 270 of those are believed to be ASML's Twinscan NXT:1980i model, according to a study by the Centre for Technology & Statecraft reported by the South China Morning Post. The proposal to broaden existing export curbs is a political recommendation, not an enacted change to Dutch export rules — the Netherlands continues to decide on licenses for certain NXT:1980i units through case-by-case reviews. Management's read on these geopolitical conditions is likely to surface during the quarterly call.

A Board Seat in Toulouse

There was also news on the leadership front. ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet has been co-opted onto Airbus's board as a non-executive director, filling the remainder of René Obermann's term. Fouquet is set to stand for a full three-year mandate at Airbus's annual general meeting in April 2027.

Where the Stock Stands

The shares were slightly lower in today's session, shedding 0.9 percent to EUR 1,643.80. Earlier in pre-market trading the stock changed hands at EUR 1,662.60, roughly 4.9 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 1,748.00. Even so, ASML has climbed 78 percent since the start of the year — a valuation the October 14 figures will either reinforce or call into question.