ASML's China Exposure Back in the Crosshairs as Buybacks and Q3 Countdown Take Shape

Think tank counts 343 immersion DUV systems in Chinese-owned fabs as ASML preps 14 October Q3 report; BofA lifts target to EUR 2,557.

A fresh inventory of lithography equipment installed across Chinese-owned semiconductor plants has thrust ASML back into the middle of the global trade-policy debate, just as the Dutch supplier prepares to update investors on its third-quarter performance.

The Center for Technology & Statecraft published its assessment on 26 September, pairing a detailed stocktake of machinery in China with a call for tighter export restrictions. The findings landed with a muted market response: ASML shares shed 1.9% in the previous session and closed at EUR 1,627.40.

343 Immersion Systems, and One Model Dominates

According to the think tank's figures, fabs under Chinese ownership held a combined 343 immersion DUV systems as of early 2026. ASML accounts for the overwhelming share of that installed base, with roughly 270 of the machines being its Twinscan NXT:1980i model.

That concentration is precisely what the Center for Technology & Statecraft points to in arguing for stricter regulatory hurdles on exports. For ASML, the conversation carries outsized weight — its advanced lithography systems are indispensable to chipmaking processes worldwide, meaning government trade rules play a defining role in where the company can operate. Market watchers are now focused on how far policymakers might go in heeding calls for additional curbs on future shipments.

BofA Lifts Its Target, Betting on Pricing and EUV Volumes

Sentiment on the analyst side has moved in the opposite direction. BofA Securities raised its price target on ASML to EUR 2,557 from EUR 2,452, keeping a Buy rating on the stock. The revision rests on revised expectations for the operating business: the bank now models higher prices for ASML's lithography systems, alongside rising delivery volumes for extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) equipment and dry systems.

The optimism did not translate into an immediate share-price reaction. The stock fell 1.9% on Tuesday to EUR 1,627.40, though it remains up 1.8% over a seven-day stretch. The new target also arrives with the shares not far off their 52-week high of EUR 1,748.00.

Buyback Program Rolls On

While the export debate simmers, ASML is pressing ahead with its capital-return plans. Under the Market Abuse Regulation, the company disclosed the purchase of 277,000 of its own shares between 28 September and 2 October 2026, for a total consideration of EUR 442,481,981. The transactions form part of the existing repurchase program and reflect the planned reduction of outstanding shares.

Europe's Silence Stands Out

Not every region is contributing to the demand story. ASML sells "absolutely nothing" in Europe, according to remarks attributed to Heemskerk, who blamed the absence of investment in semiconductor fabs on the continent and a lack of local demand. He urged European policymakers to create targeted incentives for demand for chips manufactured in Europe. For now, ASML's international business remains its load-bearing pillar.

October 14 Looms Large

The next real test comes on 14 October 2026, when ASML reports its third-quarter figures. Management will host an investor call at 15:00 CET. With order intake momentum and production utilization in focus, the interim report will show how far global bookings are offsetting Europe's retreat — and give the market its clearest read yet on the direction of a stock trading near record levels.