ASML's Buyback Spree Meets a Cycle Warning as Earnings Loom

ASML repurchased 277,000 shares for EUR 442.5M between Sept 28 and Oct 2, as Jefferies keeps a Hold rating and Q3 results loom on October 14.

ASML Holding has kept its foot firmly on the accelerator of its share repurchase program, disclosing today that it bought back 277,000 of its own shares for a total of EUR 442,481,981 between September 28 and October 2. The transaction marks a notable step-up in pace at the start of the fourth quarter, following 304,500 shares acquired in the September 14–18 window and a further 165,200 in the week of September 21–25.

The steady stream of buybacks has helped keep the stock on an even keel. The paper changed hands at EUR 1,656.40 today, a marginal move of -0.08 percent, and closed Monday's session at EUR 1,659.40 — almost exactly at the EUR 1,650 target set by Jefferies analyst Janardan Menon, who reaffirmed his "Hold" rating on September 30.

A Cycle Peak on the Horizon?

Menon's caution stems from a subdued outlook for the European semiconductor sector. In his view, the current industry environment argues against further upward revisions to earnings estimates, and any failure to deliver higher guidance could weigh on sector valuations. He also expects the present cycle to top out as early as the fourth quarter.

That skepticism lands at a moment when ASML's home-market business is already under strain. Frank Heemskerk, the company's public affairs chief, said at a De Balie panel discussion that the company is selling practically nothing in Europe, pointing to a lack of investment and a shortage of new chip fab construction on the continent. Heemskerk urged European authorities to take steps to stimulate demand for semiconductors produced in the region.

Not everyone on the sell side shares Jefferies' restraint. UBS had already left its "Buy" rating in place on September 28, and investors are looking back on a banner year regardless of the recent consolidation: the stock is up 80 percent since January.

Building Capacity While Europe Stalls

Even as regional demand languishes, ASML is laying the groundwork for expansion. Construction began September 8 on a new campus in Eindhoven, according to media reports, a project designed to broaden the company's production capabilities. How fully those new manufacturing floors will be utilized depends squarely on future orders and the appetite of chipmakers.

Geopolitical and strategic crosscurrents add another layer of uncertainty. ASML's chief warned roughly a week ago about the consequences of further export restrictions, and the upcoming quarterly figures should shed light on how these global developments are affecting operating margins and order intake.

The Numbers Everyone Is Waiting For

The market will get its clearest read on the actual state of business next week. ASML has scheduled the release of its third-quarter 2026 results for October 14 at 07:00 CET, with an investor call to follow the same day at 15:00 CET, when management is expected to offer insight into the financials and the order book.

Until then, the buyback remains the most visible support for the share price — a shareholder-friendly allocation of capital that the company has pursued without interruption right up to the edge of its reporting date.