ASML's Buyback Machine Grinds On While One US Manager Cuts Its Stake by Three-Quarters

ASML spent €390.7M on share repurchases in early August, while AlTi Global slashed its position by 76.3% in Q2. Analysts remain supportive.

The Dutch lithography giant spent another €390.7 million hoovering up its own shares in the first week of August, even as a fresh regulatory filing revealed that one American asset manager slashed its ASML position by 76.3 percent during the second quarter.

AlTi Global's Form 13F disclosure, which covers the three months to the end of June, shows the US wealth manager pared its holding aggressively. The reduction lands in a period when the stock was consolidating after a remarkable twelve-month run that saw the shares roughly double. Whether the move reflects genuine caution or simple profit-taking after that surge is open to interpretation — quarterly shifts at individual fund houses frequently follow internal allocation logic rather than a verdict on the underlying business.

A steady hand at the tiller

ASML's own behaviour tells a different story. Between 3 and 7 August, the company acquired 266,460 of its own shares at weighted average prices ranging from €1,412.90 to €1,506.07. The purchases form part of the buyback programme announced in January, which stretches across 2026 to 2028, and were disclosed through mandatory regulatory notices.

The pace is consistent with the second quarter, when ASML returned roughly €1.1 billion to shareholders through repurchases. Management's willingness to keep buying through a soft patch in the share price — the stock closed Friday at €1,507.80, down 7.3 percent on the week — suggests confidence in the company's valuation rather than any attempt to time the market. Buyers who transacted during the early August window paid prices close to current levels, indicating the programme is being executed steadily rather than opportunistically.

The interim dividend of €1.88 per share, paid out just over three weeks ago, adds another layer to the capital returns story. Since that payment, the shares have recovered 3.2 percent.

Analyst support remains intact

The buyback activity has coincided with a pair of prominent endorsements from the sell side. Goldman Sachs added ASML to its European "Conviction List" on 3 August, while Bernstein simultaneously named the stock its "Top Q3 Pick." Both calls are now more than three weeks old and reflect sentiment at the start of the quarter rather than the current picture, but they underline that the investment case was not seen as broken at that point.

Operationally, the backdrop remains anchored in demand for advanced lithography. Intel Foundry began series production of its "Panther Lake" processors in mid-July, using Intel 18A technology and ASML's High-NA EUV systems — a technological endorsement that likely informed management's buyback decisions.

What to watch next

The next major test arrives on 14 October 2026, when ASML reports third-quarter results. Consensus forecasts point to earnings per share of €10.38 on revenue of €11.31 billion, bracketed by the company's own guidance of €11.0 to €12.0 billion in net sales and a gross margin between 55 and 57 percent.

Between now and then, the chatter around individual institutional moves like AlTi's is likely to fade into background noise. The more consequential question is whether ASML hits its ambitious EUV targets, including the roughly 65 low-NA EUV systems planned for delivery this year. The fundamental narrative remains intact — even if some fund managers are rearranging their books along the way.

Whether ASML sustains the buyback cadence seen in the first half of August is the near-term metric to monitor. Further mandatory disclosures will follow as new tranches complete, and so far there is no indication the company intends to deviate from its multi-year capital return strategy.