ASML's Assembly Floor Becomes the Real Gatekeeper as Washington Weighs New China Curbs

ASML weighs pushing EUV output past 110 units in 2028 as assembly, not supply, limits growth; High-NA site breaks ground and buybacks continue.

ASML is quietly rewriting its own growth ceiling. With its order book for 2027 essentially locked up — at least 80 EUV lithography systems already spoken for — the Dutch equipment maker is now examining whether it can push output beyond 110 units in 2028, according to Reuters. The constraint, analysts say, is no longer the supply chain. It is the pace at which finished machines can be bolted together at the factory.

That distinction matters for how investors read the story. JPMorgan analysts note that most fresh EUV orders now carry delivery dates in 2028, a sign that demand is outrunning even an aggressive build-out plan. The bottleneck has migrated from component suppliers to final assembly, where complex systems take shape before shipment.

High-NA Takes Root While the Next Campus Rises

To keep that throughput expanding over the long haul, ASML is laying groundwork for its next technology generation. The company broke ground in Eindhoven on a production site dedicated to High-NA EUV systems, machines that carry price tags of roughly USD 400 million each. Major chipmakers have lined up behind the platform: TSMC and Samsung have both committed to adopting the next-generation tools, while Intel has already run a million wafers through its High-NA equipment. Samsung, for its part, aims to bring the systems into memory production by 2028.

The financial picture reflects that momentum. For the full year 2026, ASML is targeting revenue of EUR 43 billion to EUR 45 billion with a gross margin of 54% to 56%. Memory customers are providing much of the tailwind — system sales to that segment are projected to grow 75% this year, against a 25% increase forecast for foundry and logic clients.

A Diplomatic Front Opens in Washington

Running parallel to the expansion effort is a political fight that could reshape ASML's addressable market. Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten told Bloomberg Television he is confident of reaching a workable arrangement with Washington over the proposed MATCH Act, which would ban exports of all DUV immersion lithography systems to China. Jetten said he has discussed the draft rules directly with US President Donald Trump and other lawmakers.

The stakes are considerable. EUV machines have long been barred from China, and the Netherlands already requires licenses for selected DUV models. A blanket prohibition on immersion systems would tighten the vise further. Jetten argued that ASML already operates under the world's strictest controls, and that any rulebook must stay balanced to protect the domestic semiconductor industry.

Europe's Home Turf Goes Quiet

Even as ASML presses its case in Washington and expands in Asia, its backyard tells a different story. Executive Vice President Frank Heemskerk said Tuesday that the company is currently selling no chipmaking machines in Europe at all. The region simply is not investing enough, he noted, and no new fabs are being built there. ASML has instead reinforced its presence in markets like India, using industry events such as SEMICON India to deepen ties with that country's emerging semiconductor ecosystem.

Buybacks, Valuation, and the China Overhang

ASML is also returning cash to shareholders while orders stay hot. Under its ongoing buyback program, the company repurchased more than EUR 750 million worth of its own shares in two tranches in mid-September.

The stock has been a standout performer, up 66% since the start of the year. In recent trading it gained 1.4% to EUR 1,534.00, with pre-market quotes around EUR 1,527.40. The shares sit roughly 12% to 13% below their 52-week high of EUR 1,748.00, yet remain at historically elevated valuation levels. Investors are weighing the risk of further China-related restrictions against an order backlog that stretches years into the future — a backlog built on a franchise in extreme ultraviolet lithography where ASML faces no direct global rival.