ASML Lifts Full-Year Revenue Target as Demand Outruns Supply Through 2028

ASML has raised its revenue guidance and is weighing another round of capacity expansion, a combination that points to mounting confidence in demand for its chipmaking equipment. The market, for its part, has yet to be won over.

The Dutch lithography giant booked net revenue of EUR 11.7 billion and a net profit of EUR 5.0 billion in the third quarter of 2026, figures released roughly a week ago. Alongside those results it lifted its outlook for the full year, a move that Reuters said helped ease concerns about softening AI demand.

A Fourth Quarter That Carries the Weight

For 2026, management projects net revenue of between EUR 44 billion and EUR 45 billion, with a gross margin of around 56%. Both figures are forecasts rather than booked business, which puts the focus squarely on execution.

The final three months of the year will be the real test. ASML guided fourth-quarter net revenue to a range of EUR 14.2 billion to EUR 15.2 billion, and said its demand forecasts are climbing. Hitting that number would show whether the demand the company describes is actually converting into sales.

Orders Stretch to the End of the Decade

Reuters reported just over a week ago that customer interest in equipment orders for 2029 and 2030 is strong. The same reporting suggested demand for chipmaking tools will exceed ASML's supply in both 2027 and 2028.

That shifts the debate from whether demand might fade to whether ASML can build out capacity fast enough. A deep order book answers the question of appetite; it says nothing about the pace of deliveries.

Which is why the company is now studying a further capacity expansion for 2028. It is a long-range planning step, not a committed or completed build-out — a distinction that matters. The higher revenue outlook covers the current fiscal year, while the capacity review looks further out. Both signal confidence, but they carry very different degrees of commitment.

Two Different Kinds of Tailwind

Sentiment around the stock has been pulled in opposite directions. On one day ASML shares fell 2.7%, with business expectations and market mood moving apart. On another they gained 2.7%, lifted by a friendlier backdrop for semiconductor and AI names after Super Micro Computer issued preliminary revenue guidance ahead of expectations.

That swing was a sector impulse rather than fresh company news. Super Micro's numbers strengthened confidence in AI infrastructure spending and rippled across several chip stocks. For ASML, the read-across supports the case for continued investment without adding any newly reported orders.

Buybacks Round Out the Picture

On Monday the company also disclosed transactions under its ongoing share buyback program. The filing adds to the corporate news flow but says nothing new about demand or production capacity.

What separates the two trading days is the source of the signal. The gain came from the wider sector; the guidance came from ASML itself. Whether the industry cheer turns into durable operating improvement will be settled by how the revenue targets are met and how quickly supply can be expanded.