ASML Analysts Lift Targets as European Orders Vanish and Buybacks Continue

Bank of America and Barclays lifted ASML price targets on stronger EUV demand, even as European chipmakers placed no lithography orders in 2026.

Two of Europe's most closely watched research houses have raised their price targets on ASML Holding, betting that the Dutch lithography giant's order book will be powered by surging demand for cutting-edge chipmaking tools and richer selling prices — even as its home continent sits on the sidelines.

Bank of America nudged its target to EUR 2,557 from EUR 2,452 while keeping a buy rating, with analyst Didier Scemama reworking his longer-range modeling out to fiscal 2028. He now sees group revenue of EUR 76.5 billion, up from a prior EUR 70.4 billion projection. The upgrade rests on faster system deliveries: the bank now pencils in 120 EUV lithography units for 2028 rather than the 110 previously assumed, alongside a five percent bump in average selling prices. Even after factoring in input costs rising 2.5 percent, Bank of America arrives at a 2028 gross margin of 59 percent and lifts its earnings-per-share estimate for that year to EUR 85.20 from EUR 75.00.

Barclays moved in parallel, taking its target to EUR 2,450 from EUR 2,400 and reiterating its rating. Analyst Simon Coles pointed to revenue growth of at least 25 percent as achievable in 2027, with a gross margin of 57.7 percent forecast for that fiscal year.

A Home Market That Has Gone Silent

The bullish revisions land against a strikingly different picture on ASML's own doorstep. European chipmakers have placed no orders for lithography systems so far in 2026, according to Frank Heemskerk, Executive Vice President at the company. The region's share of revenue has consequently fallen to zero percent. Management is now in talks with European policymakers, seeking stronger investment incentives and a revival of local semiconductor demand. The build-out of regional manufacturing capacity on the continent has yet to translate into orders for ASML's most advanced machines.

For the year as a whole, ASML is guiding toward revenue of EUR 43 billion to EUR 45 billion and a gross margin of 54 percent to 56 percent. China is expected to account for roughly 20 percent of sales in the current period, the company has said.

Buyback Program Keeps Humming

While the order debate plays out, ASML continues to repurchase its own shares. The company disclosed yesterday that it bought back 277,000 shares between September 28 and October 2, for a total of EUR 442,481,981. Daily purchases ranged from about EUR 76.5 million to just over EUR 98.4 million. The transactions left the overall size of the existing buyback program unchanged.

The stock has been holding up. In pre-market trading the shares changed hands at EUR 1,662.60, about 4.9 percent below their 52-week high of EUR 1,748.00. During the most recent session the stock slipped modestly to EUR 1,640.60, leaving a 6.1 percent gap to that same peak.

Export Rules and the October 14 Test

Regulatory questions remain a defining force in the market backdrop. According to media reports, US officials and a Washington think tank are pressing for tighter restrictions on exports of immersion DUV systems to China. The push follows estimates that Chinese fabrication plants had built up a stockpile of 343 systems by early 2026. The Netherlands continues to decide on export licenses for certain NXT:1980i models through case-by-case reviews.

Investors will get their next clear read on the summer's financial trajectory on October 14, when ASML releases third-quarter 2026 results at 07:00, followed by a management conference call with investors at 15:00. That session should shed light on how the company is weighing both the geopolitical constraints and the broader demand picture — one that management suggests could keep semiconductor shortages running for years, with global appetite for AI computing power showing no sign of cooling.

Despite the raised targets, market participants are keeping a close watch on memory-chip orders, geopolitical uncertainty and export curbs. Even so, both research houses continue to view the industry's long-term investment cycle as intact.