Almonty: Two Signals, One Stock — A Valuation Reset and a Market That Won't Cooperate

Oppenheimer's Ian Zaffino cut his price target on Almonty to $19 from $25 on Tuesday, yet kept his "Outperform" rating firmly in place. The split verdict captures the tension running through the tungsten producer right now: the yardstick used to value the stock has shrunk, but the analyst's conviction in the business has not. Zaffino pointed to lower valuation multiples across comparable companies as the reason for the trim — a recalibration of the benchmark, not a retreat from his positive call.

That distinction matters. A lower target narrows the valuation envelope Oppenheimer is willing to apply; it says nothing about downgraded operating forecasts for Almonty itself. Investors reading the headline number alone would miss the signal embedded in the unchanged rating.

Chinese Prices Keep Sliding

The broader tungsten backdrop offers little comfort. Tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices in China extended their declines, with APT reportedly weakening to $2,700 per MTU. The reports cite a familiar combination: soft demand from downstream processors, destocking across the supply chain, and sellers offloading material for immediate cash — a mix of demand-side weakness and plain liquidity pressure.

For Almonty, that is a genuine sector risk. But it does not translate neatly into every market the company serves. CEO Lewis Black, speaking in a podcast interview on Wednesday, drew attention to the price gap between China and Western markets and said he expects the two to converge gradually. That is a management expectation, not a forecast with a date or a price level attached — and the absence of both is precisely why investors should hold it separately from the Chinese spot declines.

Nor should the recent slide in Almonty's share price be read as a direct verdict on Chinese tungsten quotes. No causal link has been established.

Sangdong's Ramp-Up Is the Real Scorecard

What can be measured sits on the operational side. Black has said Sangdong's grinding circuit is running at full throughput, with the first commercial shipment slated for October 24 — a company plan, not confirmation of a delivery already made. He has also flagged the first commercial tungsten shipment from Sangdong in more than three decades, alongside progress in Rwanda and advancing plans for a second-phase expansion.

Those disclosures form the operational counterweight to Oppenheimer's lower valuation basis. They do not, however, answer how the changed price environment will flow through Almonty's economics.

The company has scheduled an investor day for October 19, 2026, with a webcast set for 9 a.m. Eastern Time, promising an overview of the tungsten market and updates on each mine.

Two separate ledgers, then, for anyone holding the stock: a valuation framework that Oppenheimer has marked down while maintaining its positive stance, and a price environment in China that keeps weakening. The mine reports promised at the investor day will be the next hard data point against which to test whether operational progress can outrun a soft market. A planned shipment date is not the same thing as stable demand — and a falling Chinese price does not, by itself, disprove the Sangdong ramp-up.