Almonty's Two-Continent Tungsten Push Meets a Wall Street Divide on Price Targets

Almonty shares rose 3.1% to EUR 12.10 after Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed its buy rating and USD 25.50 target, citing Sangdong momentum.

Almonty Industries is moving on several fronts at once, and the market is rewarding the effort — at least for now. The tungsten producer's shares climbed 3.1% on Friday to EUR 12.10, lifted by a fresh endorsement from Cantor Fitzgerald.

Analyst Matthew O'Keefe reaffirmed his buy rating on the stock Thursday, attaching a 12-month price target of USD 25.50. His confidence, according to media reports, rests on operational momentum at the company's South Korean site, Sangdong, where concentrate shipments have begun and the operation is being pushed toward round-the-clock output. Ore stockpiles at the location are sufficient for roughly 4.6 months.

That progress follows a milestone reached on September 23, when Almonty reported the first tungsten production at Sangdong since 1993 — a restart of a historically significant asset.

Phase II Underway, Permits in Hand

In a shareholder letter dated Tuesday, chief executive Lewis Black said the first bags of tungsten concentrate at Sangdong are ready for export. Phase II of the project is now formally in motion, with completion targeted for 2027. Once finished, annual processing capacity is expected to reach as much as 1.2 million tonnes. Permits for commercial operation of the processing plant and crushing facilities are already in place, clearing the way for concentrate sales.

The company also confirmed an organizational change this week, stating there were no disagreements or reportable incidents connected to the transition.

Rwanda Deal and a European Offtake

Broader supply-chain pressures are shaping Almonty's strategy. After China imposed export restrictions on tungsten intermediates, Western industrial firms have been hunting for sources outside the dominant market. Almonty has responded by widening its geographic footprint.

On September 14, the company signed a binding partnership with the Rwandan government. Under the terms, Rwanda takes a 25% stake in subsidiary Almonty Rwanda Pty Ltd, while Almonty secures mining rights to the Shyorongi exploration concession and a license to process minerals in the country.

Three days later, on September 17, Almonty reported a multi-year offtake agreement with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a Sandvik Group subsidiary. The deal covers reprocessing of mining residues at the Spanish site of Los Santos and encompasses at least roughly 1,720 tonnes of WO3. It includes a conditional one-time payment of USD 3.0 million plus customer capital to restart the facility.

In his September 26 letter, the chairman flagged a noticeable tightening of Western supply and placed the company's own raw-material security front and center.

Buyback Plans and a Valuation Debate

Alongside its production buildout, Almonty is reshaping its capital structure. The company said an automatic share buyback program is planned.

Not everyone on the sell side shares Cantor Fitzgerald's enthusiasm. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on September 24 with a neutral rating and a USD 13.00 price target, arguing that the valuation already discounts much of the future earnings potential. The analysts also pointed to the risk that tungsten prices could normalize or that production might ramp more slowly than planned.

The stock remains well below its 52-week high of EUR 20.61, leaving a visible gap between current levels and where the bulls see it heading.