Almonty's Two Clocks: Montana's Permitting Fast Lane and the Sangdong Ramp-Up

A widening price gap is defining the tungsten market in which Almonty operates — and it is doing so against a backdrop of fresh trading infrastructure, a newly signed permitting agreement and a share price that has been anything but steady.

Western APT was quoted at $278.22/kg on October 26, according to media reports, while the Chinese ex-works price stood at just $74.43/kg. Almonty shares rose 2.7% on the day those figures circulated; no link between the stock move and the price spread has been established. The prior session told a different story, with the stock posting a daily change of -9.5%.

New Tools for a Two-Tier Market

Almonty chief executive Lewis Black used his October 25 newsletter to flag two separate initiatives taking shape in tungsten pricing. CME is planning to launch tungsten futures next year, while S&P Global Platts has proposed a dedicated price assessment for tungsten of non-Chinese origin. The two proposals are distinct: one is a planned futures market, the other a suggested benchmark with an explicitly geographic scope.

Black also reported an operational milestone in the same newsletter. The first tungsten container left Sangdong that weekend bound for a customer — the first shipment of its kind in more than 30 years, according to the company.

Montana Signs On

Roughly a week before that newsletter, Montana joined the federal FAST-41 permitting process, signing an agreement on October 28 with the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council. The framework is designed to coordinate state and federal approval timelines, and Almonty's Gentung tungsten project was explicitly named among the state's emerging tungsten developments. Almonty said it was present at Montana's entry into the program.

The agreement's potential benefit for Almonty sits squarely in the permitting process itself, which makes execution the yardstick. The central test is how the FAST-41 framework is applied to Gentung specifically — whether the coordination between permitting levels that Almonty describes as a simplification actually materializes on the project. A signed agreement creates a starting point; project-level procedural progress is what would give it added weight. Investors assigning a higher value to the Montana project today are effectively betting on the successful practical application of the coordination framework.

Sangdong Shows Both Sides of Execution

The operational record at Sangdong offers a parallel test. At an investor day on October 19, Black described the failure of an incorrectly installed Metso gearbox, media reports said — a reminder of how forcefully technical details can shape the operational picture. Black also stated that Sangdong Phase I had started with an annual capacity of 640,000 tonnes, with 1.2 million tonnes planned for Phase II. The expansion remains a plan whose value to investors depends on delivery.

In the favorable scenario, FAST-41 improves agency coordination for Gentung and strengthens the Montana project's outlook, provided verifiable procedural progress follows. Sangdong would demonstrate execution in live operations while Gentung offers an additional project pipeline. That scenario gains substance only when both operational delivery and permitting coordination move forward. The unfavorable case pairs further technical difficulties with a lack of concrete progress at Gentung — at which point operational demands would outweigh the prospect of smoother regulatory coordination.

Korea Talks Add a Third Thread

A possible additional listing has also been on the table. Media reports said Almonty held talks about a potential South Korean listing roughly two weeks ago, with Korean depositary receipts among the variants discussed. The coverage characterized the move as a possible option rather than a confirmed listing plan.

The next substantive catalysts are a confirmed project-level step in Gentung's permitting process and solid company disclosures on Sangdong's further development. Until then, the signed Montana agreement and the first Sangdong cargo stand as starting points — and the gap between a framework and its application is where Almonty's valuation will be decided.