Almonty's Tungsten Windfall: A $300 Million Buyback, a 21-Year Contract, and a Mine That Just Flipped Profitable

Tungsten prices surge 622%, Almonty posts $181.8M profit, launches $300M buyback, and extends GTP offtake to 21 years.

The numbers coming out of Almonty Industries' second quarter read less like a quarterly update and more like a corporate rebirth. Revenue surged 498 percent to C$43 million, adjusted EBITDA swung to C$17.6 million from a negative C$4.8 million a year earlier, and the tungsten producer posted a net profit of US$181.8 million — a dramatic reversal from the US$58.2 million loss it absorbed in the same period last year. The catalyst is no mystery: tungsten prices have climbed an extraordinary 622 percent between January 2025 and April 2026, according to the International Energy Agency, and Almonty is now harvesting the rewards.

A Buyback Timed to a Valuation Gap

What makes the current moment unusual is what management chose to do with that momentum. Rather than plowing every dollar into expansion, the board has authorized a share repurchase program worth up to US$300 million — roughly 14.4 million shares, or about five percent of outstanding stock as of August 14, 2026. The buyback kicks off August 24 and runs for 36 months, executed on the Nasdaq and alternative trading venues under SEC Rule 10b-18 safe-harbor provisions.

The rationale, as framed by the company, is a perceived disconnect between the share price and the underlying value of its tungsten assets. The stock closed at US$17.59 on August 20, having traded in a range of US$15.75 to US$17.80 that day on volume of 10.48 million shares — well above its average of 7.24 million. That puts the company's market capitalization at roughly US$5.1 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio near 58. The shares remain far from their 52-week high of US$24.41, though they have come a long way from the year's low of US$3.97.

On the Frankfurt exchange, where the stock is also listed, the reaction was more muted: the shares traded at €15.165 on Friday, up just 0.13 percent — a sign that much of the good news may already be priced into the equity.

The Contract That Changes the Calculus

Underpinning the company's confidence is a rarely seen commitment in the mining world: the extension of its offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP) to 21 years. The contracted volume increases by 40 percent, and the price basis rises by 6.3 percent. For a commodity producer, locking in a sales channel for two decades provides a level of planning certainty that most peers simply cannot match.

That certainty is backed by a formidable balance sheet. Almonty's cash position now stands at approximately C$1.2 billion, bolstered by an oversubscribed convertible bond issuance of US$800 million closed during the quarter.

Sangdong's Ascent and a Portfolio in Motion

The operational heart of the story is the Sangdong mine in South Korea's Gangwon province, now in its ramp-up phase. Phase I is designed to produce roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, while an already-approved Phase II could lift capacity to as much as 1.2 million tonnes. Analysts at Seeking Alpha note that the earnings model from Almonty's Panasqueira operation in Portugal has effectively validated the blueprint for Sangdong — a point that lends credibility to the growth trajectory the quarterly figures now substantiate.

Panasqueira remains a key contributor, and the company is also advancing the Gentung project in Montana. At the Red Mountain Mining Pioneer Project, exploration has returned tungsten grades of up to 0.32 percent WO3, underscoring the resource quality at that site.

A Structural Shift in Market Dynamics

The broader environment could hardly be more favorable for a non-Chinese tungsten supplier. The global tungsten market is projected to expand from US$6.66 billion this year to US$9.62 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 9.6 percent, per the Business Research Company. Regulatory tailwinds are compounding the demand story: a U.S. BIS rule effective August 27, 2026 mandates full allocation of tungsten scrap to domestic buyers for one year, and starting January 1, 2027, U.S. defense procurement will restrict tungsten sourcing from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. For Almonty, these measures sharpen its positioning as a Western alternative in a commodity increasingly caught up in geopolitical tension.

Consolidating the Listing, Courting the Indexes

The company is also reshaping its market presence. Russell added Almonty to both the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 at the end of June, a structural improvement in liquidity. Meanwhile, Almonty has been streamlining its exchange footprint: it voluntarily delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange on July 31, and the Australian Securities Exchange has approved a further delisting effective September 1, 2026. The Nasdaq is increasingly becoming the company's primary venue.

Demand for tungsten in artificial intelligence applications is cited as an additional driver behind the Sangdong expansion. Whether the momentum persists will likely hinge on how quickly the mine can add revenue beyond what Panasqueira has been carrying. The buyback begins August 24 — and the Sangdong ramp-up remains the decisive operational test for the quarters ahead.