Almonty's Tungsten Story Gains Momentum as Analysts Split on the Pace of Profit Growth

Almonty swings to profit, ramps up Sangdong, and gains from US tungsten export ban, but Diamond Equity trims estimates, creating mixed outlook.

The tungsten producer's turnaround narrative is building on multiple fronts, but the market's enthusiasm is not universally shared. Almonty Industries has found itself at the intersection of geopolitical tailwinds, operational milestones, and diverging analyst expectations — a combination that has produced a striking rally alongside a fresh wave of caution from at least one research house.

A Quarter That Changed the Conversation

The numbers released on August 11 marked a decisive shift for the company. Almonty swung from losses to profits in both the second quarter and the first half, with revenue and margins at its Panasqueira operation improving markedly against the prior-year period. That operational inflection point has become the cornerstone of the more bullish assessments circulating in recent weeks.

GBC AG responded on August 20 with a buy recommendation and an upward revision to its valuation. The timing is notable: the analyst endorsement lands amid a cluster of developments that includes the profitability turnaround, an already-announced share buyback, and the production ramp-up at Sangdong, which kicked off more than a month ago and has since lifted the stock by 8.8 percent.

Yet not every voice on the street is singing from the same hymn sheet. Diamond Equity Research trimmed its earnings estimates for the coming periods on August 18 — a correction that sits awkwardly alongside the GBC upgrade and underscores the lack of consensus on how quickly Almonty's improved profitability will translate into sustained earnings growth.

Geopolitics Enters the Frame

Over the weekend, chief executive commentary added a fresh layer to the narrative. A Sunday newsletter titled "Why America just banned tungsten exports" offered the company's read on Washington's recent export restrictions on the critical mineral. The piece contained no new financial figures or contract announcements, but it sharpens Almonty's positioning as one of the few tungsten producers operating outside China — a status that is gaining strategic weight as buyers scramble for supply chains that bypass Beijing's control.

That geopolitical angle is likely to keep the stock in the headlines for weeks to come, given how directly it touches Almonty's identity as a Western supplier of a mineral now at the center of US trade policy.

Structural Housekeeping in the Background

Alongside the geopolitical messaging, a more technical development is quietly unfolding. The company's Chess Depositary Interests are set to be suspended at Friday's market close, according to media reports. The move affects trading in that specific depositary format but leaves holders of the ordinary shares — or those accessing the stock through other venues — unaffected in practical terms.

It is a structural adjustment rather than an operational event, and it slots into a broader pattern of changes to how Almonty's securities are listed and traded.

Reading the Tape

The market's immediate reaction has been muted. The stock closed Monday at €15.31, down 1.6 percent on the day — a figure that differs slightly from the €15.26 close and 2.0 percent daily decline reported in other coverage of the same session. Either way, the short-term drift appears to be less about the two latest headlines and more about consolidation after a powerful run. Over the past month, the shares have still gained roughly 39 percent, a reflection of how the fundamental improvement from the half-year report and the GBC endorsement have more than offset any recent pullback. On a seven-day view, the stock is off 5.3 percent.

A Two-Sided Picture for Investors

What emerges is a dual narrative. On one side, the operational base has clearly strengthened: the first-half results speak for themselves, the Sangdong ramp-up is underway, a buyback of up to $300 million is in motion, and Almonty is actively positioning itself as a beneficiary of tighter US trade policy toward Chinese tungsten exports.

On the other, the trimmed estimates from Diamond Equity Research serve as a reminder that the pace of future earnings growth remains an open question. The stock is therefore trading between demonstrated operational strength and divergent expectations about what comes next — a tension that is likely to persist as the market weighs the durability of the turnaround against the momentum of the geopolitical story.