Almonty's Tungsten Story Enters a New Chapter as Prices Cool and Listings Consolidate

Almonty shares fell 3.9% as tungsten prices corrected sharply; Q2 revenue surged 498%, but spot exposure and buyback signal caution.

The tungsten producer's equity has spent much of 2025 in overdrive, but Friday's session offered a reminder that the commodity cycle does not move in one direction. Shares closed 3.9 percent lower at EUR 15.57, a pullback that arrives just as the underlying metal market shows signs of a pronounced cooldown.

The reference price for ammonium paratungstate on the Chinese benchmark market stood at roughly USD 79,731.63 per tonne in early August, down about 24.6 percent from July's USD 105,775.02. That correction extends a slide that began in May, when wolframite concentrate had already fallen more than 57 percent from its March peak. Weaker offtake from downstream processors and swelling inventories have encouraged buyers to hold back.

For Almonty, the timing is awkward. The company's second-quarter results, reported in mid-August, were powered by precisely the kind of price strength that is now fading. Revenue surged 498 percent year-on-year to CAD 43.0 million, propelled by a European APT price that climbed from roughly USD 453 to about USD 3,075 per metric tonne unit. Mining margins came in at 60.7 percent. A sustained drop in tungsten prices would inevitably compress that profitability, even as output from the Sangdong mine in South Korea continues to ramp.

The share price reaction on Friday can be read as the market's first attempt to price in that vulnerability, though no explicit link has been documented. Notably, the stock still trades about 18 percent above its 50-day moving average, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact even as momentum has slowed.

What happens next hinges on whether the APT and wolframite correction deepens or stabilizes. Almonty has hedged part of its exposure through the offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, extended in July by six years with roughly 6.3 percent improved pricing on contracted volumes. That arrangement cushions some of the volatility, but a substantial portion of revenue remains tied to spot prices.

The company is also navigating a structural transition on the listing front. Almonty has completed its exit from the Australian Securities Exchange, with CDIs suspended at yesterday's close and formal delisting slated for September 1. Trading now centers on Nasdaq and Frankfurt. The move follows the departure from the Toronto Stock Exchange roughly a month ago — a period in which the stock has gained 61.6 percent.

The consolidation of trading venues reflects a broader transformation. Sangdong, the operational centerpiece, began processing ore in July after initial inventory runs through the new plant in June. Phase I is expected to deliver around 2.3 kilotonnes of tungsten concentrate. With China still accounting for roughly 79 percent of global mine production, per GBC AG, Sangdong's emergence as a non-Chinese supply source carries strategic weight.

The second-quarter numbers underscore how far the company has come. Beyond the revenue jump, Almonty posted net income of CAD 181.8 million after a loss in the year-ago period. The balance sheet, bolstered by the USD 800 million convertible bond offering completed in June, held roughly CAD 1.23 billion in cash as of June 30.

That financial firepower is now being deployed. The board approved a buyback program of up to 14.4 million shares, or USD 300 million, to run over 36 months. Management cited a perceived gap between the market valuation and the value of the tungsten assets as Sangdong scales up. Since the announcement, the stock has slipped 0.5 percent. At the same time, the company has filed shelf registrations for potential share issuances of around USD 246.79 million, including an ESOP component.

The market has rewarded the contract extension with Global Tungsten & Powders — the stock has climbed 27.1 percent since that deal was announced — and the broader trajectory remains strongly positive. On a monthly basis, shares are up 63 percent; year-to-date, the gain stands at 96 percent. Still, the stock sits 24 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 20.61 reached in April, a gap that could close if Sangdong's operational momentum continues.

The tungsten market itself is projected to expand from roughly USD 6.66 billion to about USD 9.62 billion by 2030, according to Business Research Company. Whether Almonty can translate that tailwind into sustained shareholder value — and whether the current price correction proves temporary — will determine if the remarkable rally of the past year extends or gives way to a consolidation phase.