Almonty's Tungsten Story Draws Its First Wall Street Verdict as Early Backers Cash In

The tungsten market's geopolitical glow is finally translating into formal sell-side recognition for Almonty Industries, with Jefferies launching coverage this week at a buy rating and a price target of $26.25. The endorsement lands at a pivotal moment: the company's flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea has just crossed from construction into production, and a wave of capital-return initiatives is reshaping how investors value the stock.

A Rating Built on Supply Chains, Not Just Spreadsheets

Jefferies' call rests less on conventional valuation metrics than on Almonty's strategic position in the race to build Western tungsten supply chains independent of Chinese dominance. Tungsten's role in defense, semiconductor fabrication, and industrial applications has made it a focal point for buyers seeking alternatives to Chinese sources, and Sangdong — where processing of stockpiled ore began in July — places Almonty squarely in that niche.

The operational transition had already shown up in the company's second-quarter numbers. Almonty reported revenue of roughly C$43 million for the period, a dramatic leap from C$7.2 million a year earlier, marking its shift from an exploration and construction vehicle into a producing miner. The growth story is not confined to Korea, either: the company's Panasqueira operation in Portugal also posted year-on-year revenue gains in the first half, underscoring that momentum is running across multiple sites.

Early Investors Take Profits as the Story Matures

The valuation surge that accompanied this operational progress has prompted at least one longtime shareholder to bank some gains. Deutsche Rohstoff AG disclosed a profit of €128 million from the partial sale of its Almonty stake — a transaction on the investor level rather than a corporate action, but one that speaks to the appreciation early backers have enjoyed. The German resource group was among Almonty's initial investors, and its decision to trim rather than exit entirely suggests confidence in the trajectory while acknowledging how far the shares have run.

That run has been substantial. The stock has climbed 88 percent since the start of the year and advanced 36 percent over the past month alone. Such moves typically invite profit-taking, which may explain why the shares traded 2.4 percent lower at €14.72 on the day of the Jefferies initiation, still well below the 52-week high of €20.61 set in April.

Capital Returns and a Streamlined Listing

Almonty's management has been active on multiple fronts to complement the operational story. Roughly two weeks ago, the board authorized a share buyback program of up to $300 million, covering as many as 14.4 million shares — approximately 5 percent of outstanding capital — over a 36-month period. The announcement has supported the share price, with gains of 4.2 percent since the buyback was unveiled.

The company has also moved to consolidate its trading venues, completing its exit from the Australian Securities Exchange with the removal of its CHESS Depositary Interests from the official list. Almonty now trades exclusively on the Nasdaq and in Frankfurt, a streamlining move designed to concentrate liquidity.

A long-term supply agreement extension announced over a month ago, stretching into the 2040s, has added another layer of reassurance, with the stock up 6.4 percent since that news broke.

What Comes Next

For investors, the Deutsche Rohstoff sale is less a warning sign than a natural milestone in a company's lifecycle. Early-stage shareholders typically realize gains once a flagship project like Sangdong transitions into an operating phase with credible revenue figures. The partial exit signals the conclusion of one investment phase rather than doubt about what lies ahead.

The more immediate question is whether other sell-side firms will follow Jefferies' lead. With production ramping, revenue inflecting sharply higher, and capital being returned to shareholders, Almonty now has the kind of narrative that tends to attract additional analyst coverage. The geopolitical tailwind — Western buyers diversifying away from Chinese tungsten — provides a structural argument that extends beyond any single quarter's results.