Almonty's Tungsten Crossroads: US Export Curbs Meet a High-Stakes Earnings Moment

Almonty faces options-implied 8.7% swing on Q2 earnings, with US scrap export limits reshaping supply and pricing dynamics.

The tungsten market is tightening in two directions at once, and Almonty Industries finds itself squarely in the middle. As Washington prepares to lock down domestic tungsten scrap supplies, the Toronto-based producer is simultaneously bracing for what options traders suggest could be a sharp move in its share price when second-quarter numbers land next month.

Almonty's stock closed Monday at $13.70 on the Nasdaq, having swung between $13.66 and $14.75 during the session before fading 7.1 percent from its intraday high. The pullback came on lighter-than-usual turnover, with 6.05 million shares changing hands against an average of 8.05 million. The session left the company with a market capitalization of $3.88 billion and a 52-week range stretching from $3.97 to $24.41.

Options Market Prices In a Decisive Move

Derivatives traders are bracing for meaningful volatility around the upcoming earnings release. Options pricing implies an 8.7 percent swing in the stock following the report, according to CNN data. The market's nervousness is understandable: consensus estimates compiled by Zacks point to earnings of $0.10 per share — a 300 percent jump year over year — on revenue of $52.66 million, an extraordinary 912.6 percent surge. Public.com carries the same profit forecast and expects the release later in August.

Those projections rest on a first quarter that already showed considerable momentum. Revenue climbed 221 percent to $25.4 million, propelled by a sharp rise in the spot price of tungsten APT and steady operational performance at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. Operating cash flow swung to positive $9.7 million from negative $4.4 million in the prior-year quarter. The balance sheet showed $259.9 million in cash and $169.5 million in working capital as of March 31.

US Export Restrictions Reshape the Supply Picture

The regulatory environment is shifting beneath those fundamentals. Starting August 27, the United States will require that 100 percent of monthly tungsten scrap sales go to domestic buyers, a restriction that runs for 12 months. The rule targets a trade flow that had already stalled: US scrap exports totaled roughly 2,183 tonnes in the first half of 2026, down from 2,202 tonnes in the same period last year. Japan, Germany and South Korea — the primary destinations for that material — will now need to source elsewhere.

Prices are already responding. Tungsten carbide inserts traded between $28 and $34 per pound in late July, down 13 percent month over month, while round steel products fell 12 percent. For Almonty, the dynamic cuts both ways: softer near-term pricing weighs on sentiment, but a more protectionist US posture could ultimately strengthen pricing power for Western producers operating outside China's dominant supply chain.

A Shifting Corporate Structure

Monday's price action also unfolded against a significant corporate reorganization. The Australian Securities Exchange has formally approved Almonty's voluntary delisting, with CDI trading ending August 28 and the delisting taking effect September 1. That follows the company's earlier decision to withdraw from the Toronto Stock Exchange effective July 31.

Management frames the exits in practical terms rather than as a reflection of underlying weakness. Trading volumes on the ASX have been thin and declining relative to the Nasdaq, which the company cites as the primary rationale for leaving Australia. With both the TSX and ASX listings falling away, price discovery is consolidating on the Nasdaq — a concentration of liquidity that could amplify share-price swings around the upcoming earnings report.

The Sangdong Question

The central issue for investors remains how quickly the production ramp-up at the Sangdong mine in South Korea translates into revenue. The flagship operation is the engine behind the dramatic growth forecasts, and the market's focus now narrows to execution. The company's most recent reported quarter — the third quarter of 2025 — showed revenue of C$8.70 million, up roughly 28 percent year over year, with net income of C$33.19 million, a gain of more than 700 percent. Those figures are now several quarters old, but they underscore that operational momentum was already building well before the current acceleration phase.

Between the US export rule, the corporate restructuring and the earnings catalyst ahead, Almonty's shares are likely to remain sensitive to every development in the global tungsten supply chain. For a company that counts as one of the few significant producers outside China, the coming weeks will test whether the market's expectations — and the options market's implied volatility — match the reality of a mine still scaling up.